Daily Analysis 20220829

Global update:

August 29th, 2022

Good morning,

Powell comments fuel 1,000-point market rout Friday as stocks slide for a second week

Stocks plummeted Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech the central bank won’t back off in its fight against rapid inflation.

Dow…….32283 -1000.4 -3.03%‼️
Nasdaq.12142 -497.6 -3.94%‼️
S&P 500..4058 -141.5 -3.37%‼️

FTSE…….7427 -52.4 -0.70%
Dax……..12972 -248.6 -1.88%
CAC……..6274 -107.3 -1.68%

Nikkei….28641 +162.4 +0.57%
HSI……..20170 +201.7 +1.01%
Shanghai..3236 -10.02 -0.31%
ST Times..3250 +1.7 +0.05%

IDX…….7135.25 -38.96 -0.54%
LQ45…1014.27 -7.21 -0.71%

IDX Energy…1904.45 +14.65 +0.78%
IDX Bsc Mat.1293.23 -6.09 -0.47%
IDX Industrl..1307.06 -9.66 -0.73%
IDXNONCYC..708.78 -1.63 -0.23%
IDX Hlthcare.1405.16 +1.88 +0.13%
IDXCYCLIC…..893.39 +0.04 +0.08%
IDX Techno..7976.84 -91.82 -1.14%
IDX Transp…1978.52 -19.78 -0.99%
IDX Infrast…..1035.59 +2.03 +0.20%
IDX Finance 1499.65 -4.63 -0.31%
IDX Banking..1134.19 -3.91 -0.34%
IDX Property…712 +2.80 +0.40%

Indo10Yr….7.1619 +0.0082 +0.12%
ICBI……..336.3949 -0.1514 -0.04%
US10Yr…..3.0350 +0.0090 +0.30%
VIX……….25.56 +3.78 +17.36%‼️

USDIndx 108.8030 +0.4020 +0.37%
Como Indx..299.09 +2.34 +0.79%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..159.48 +1.07 +0.67%
.
IndoCDS…110.95 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14816.50 -8.00 -0.05%
Jisdor..14814.00 -13.00 -0.09%

Euro………0.9966 -0.0012 -0.12%

TLKM……..29.93 -0.48 -1.58%
(4434)
EIDO………23.56 -0.37 -1.55%
EEM………40.01 -0.60 -1.48%

Oil…………..93.06 +0.37 +0.40%
Gold ……..1749.80 -20.70 -1.17%
Timah. .24750.00 +440.00 +1.81%
( Closed 26/8)
Nickel….21695.50 +18.50 +0.09%
(Closed 27/8)
Silver…….18.83 -0.33 -1.72%
Copper….369.70 -0.25 -0.07%

Nturl Gas…..9.320 -0.041 -0.44%

Ammonia….3733.33 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(25/8)

Coal price….427.00 +14.25 +3.45%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….419.85 +9.85 +2.40%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….411.00 +7.30 +1.81%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….383.10 +8.85 +2.36%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….374.65 +9.65 +2.64%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….365.85 +9.50 +2.67%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4181 -74 -1.74%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..664.25 +14.25 +2.19%
SoybeanOil…66.88 +0.97 +1.47%
Wheat……..805.25 +16.25 +2.06%

Wood pulp…6714.00 unch +0%
(Closed 28/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US DJI NASDAQ drop 3% pas jum’at, ngeri banget… Europe merah juga tapi ga separah itu. Asia masih ada ijo di Nikkei Hangseng sama Kospi. Semoga IHSG ga separah itu dibantingnya. Sudah diperkirakan mau wave 2 tapi kalo terlalu dalem turunnya juga saham yang harusnya jadwal jadi ganjel index bisa ikut keseret

Gold silver copper merah, timah nikel ijo, oil ijo coal tipis, gas merah, semoga masih on track energy healthcare sama consumer non-cyclicals jagain index

Sudah firm ya, MACD sell signal… Brace yourself for the ride downhill. Yang diluar healthcare energy dan consumer non-cyclicals mending dibuang kalo perlu cutloss dulu. Nanti belanja lagi dibawah. US merah dalem banget, IHSG kemungkinan besar ikut merah dalem, bisa jadi semua sektor juga keseret kebawah

IHSG – semua menunjukkan mau turun dulu, stoch down, macd sell, bandar distribusi, FNS, MFI down, LR down, PSAR down, ada gap dibawah, memang alligator dan supertrend masih up, tapi lagging indicator buat main major trend kan memang suka telat.

Masih Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, disusul lagi sama Consumer Cyclicals. Industrials emerging, tapi index mau turun gini kayanya belum jalan lagi dulu

Energy – masih bagus semua, kecuali sudah nongol bearish divergence. Bisa jadi penanda akhir wave 5, kalo bener begitu koreksinya biasanya rada besar, standarnya bikin ABC correction. Semoga hari ini closing divergence nya cancelled

INDY – stoch buy tapi mencurigakan, MACD nya abis sell terus sideways, foreign entry, bandar volumeup tapi kebacanya distribusi, dan MFI turun. 2 candle terakhir doji, orang suka bilang tweezer top, ini reversal candles. Dengan US merah dalem dan index mau wave 2, jangan entry dulu deh

Kita compare sama ADRO

ADRO – Stoch up flat, macd up, mfi up,3 hari terakhir bandar dan foreign distribusi, pas abis tutup gap ga pernah close diatas gap, ada bearish divergence sudah ada 1 candle merah, resiko koreksi. Yang jelas kemarin saya sell setengah di gap closing. Kalo lanjut alhamdulillah, kalo koreksi siap nambah muatan lagi di bawah

Liat cacingnya masih bagus bagus… Kita liat ELSA PGAS

ELSA – Stoch Buy, MECD up, Foreign trend akum tapi jum’at jualan, bandar akum, ada vol breakout, harga sempet naik tinggi walau keseret lagi kebawah sama index, target retracement patern di 400-an, crater theory next target 360. Harusnya masih lanjut ini walau index merah

Healthcare – tinggal tunggu bandar sama foreign re-entry terus ngangkat, technical ok banget…

MIKA stoch buy signal

MIKA – masih dibawa sideways terus, turun dikit, MACD nya nongol sell lagi. Semoga cepet jalan

Consumer Non-Cyclicals – abis 3 black crows beneran dilanjutin kebawah, stoch udah sell foreign mulai exit, kita assess satu2 yang dipegang, kalo harus cutloss dulu

Sampe jum’at belum ada sell signal, malah buy di LSIP DSNG dan TAPG

CPIN – belum sih, masih hold…

INDF – signal ngebalik, break low 6450 cutloss…

Lagi2 cacingnya masih pada bagus…

Consumer Cyclicals – stay away dulu, chart nya jelek

ERAA sebenernya menarik, tapi ga deh, tunggu index beres koreksi aja atau kalo firm ERAA nya jalan sebagai salah satu ganjel

Kebakaran deh IHSG… memang statistics doesn’t lie sih

TKIM buy signal lagi… mau ikutan jadi ganjel index kah?

TKIM – Walau sebenernya lebih menarik belanja energy pas dip, tapi spec buy lagi di TKIM boljug ini…

EXCL macd buy signal

EXCL – walau lapkeu keluar bagus tapi dibawa sideways masih, keseret index paling juga, WNS dulu nanti sektornya kapan bangun