Daily Analysis 20220824

Global Update:

August 24th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow, S&P 500 fall Tuesday, notching three-day losing streak

Stocks fell Tuesday following its worst day since June as investors braced for a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve.

Dow…….32910 -154.02 -0.47%
Nasdaq.12381 -0.3 -0.00%
S&P 500..4129 -9.3 -0.22%

FTSE…….7488 -46.7 -0.61%
Dax……..13194 -36.3 -0.27%
CAC……..6362 -16.7 -0.26%

Nikkei….28453 -341.8 -1.19%
HSI……..19503 -153.7 -0.78%
Shanghai..3276 -1.6 -0.05%
ST Times..3246 -16.4 -0.50%

IDX…….7163.27 +55.8 +0.78%
LQ45…1023.00 +8.32 +0.82%

IDX Energy…1844.28 +58.98 +3.30%
IDX Bsc Mat.1301.17 +21.23 +1.66%
IDX Industrl..1305.95 +8.32 +0.64%
IDXNONCYC..714.18 +0.95 +0.13%
IDX Hlthcare.1413.88 +8.63 +0.61%
IDXCYCLIC…..897.39 +4.75 +0.53%
IDX Techno..7875.48 +51.01 +0.65%
IDX Transp…2010.54 -7.43 -0.37%
IDX Infrast…..1038.13 +8.32 +0.81%
IDX Finance 1501.17 +5.51 +0.37%
IDX Banking..1138.31 +2.75 +0.24%
IDX Property…707 +3.00 +0.43%

Indo10Yr….7.1870 +0.009 +0.13%
ICBI……..335.7238 -0.2426 -0.07%
US10Yr…..3.0540 +0.0170 +0.56%
VIX……….24.11 +0.31 +1.30%

USDIndx 108.6240 -0.4220 -0.39%
Como Indx..296.31 +3.48 +1.19%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..157.63 +0.08 +0.05%
.
IndoCDS…110.95 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14837.50 -54.00 -0.36%
Jisdor..14893 .00 +11.00 +0.07%

Euro………0.9970 +0.0028 +0.28%‼️

TLKM……..31.08 -0.03 -0.10%
(4629)
EIDO………23.76 +0.41 +1.76%
EEM………39.76 +0.21 +0.53%

Oil…………..93.75 +3.52 +3.90%
Gold ……..1760.90 +12.50 +0.71%
Timah. .24795.00 -330.00 -1.33%
( Closed 22/8)
Nickel….21851.00 -543.00 -2.42%‼️
(Closed 23/8)
Silver…….19.10 +0.10 +0.53%
Copper….367.90 +2.55 +0.70%

Nturl Gas…..9.242 -0.551 -5.63%‼️

Ammonia….3733.33 -16.67 -0.44%
China
(Domestic Price)(22/8)

Coal price….417.60 -0.75 -0.18%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price….425.00 -20.50 -4.60%‼️
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….420.00 -20.25 -4.60%‼️
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….370.00 -7.75 -2.05%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….379.00 -27.10 -6.67%‼️
(Sept/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….371.00 -26.45 -6.65%‼️
(Okt/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4237 +74 +1.78%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..655.25 +26.25 +4.17%‼️
SoybeanOil…66.92 +0.57 +0.86%
Wheat………800.50 +12.25 +1.55%

Wood pulp…6700.00 unch +0%
(Closed 23/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US masih lanjut merah walau ga terlalu dalem, europe sama asia juga, kecuali IDX yang maksa tutup gap jadi ijo sendiri, so kemungkinan besar lanjut kebawah hari ini, sesuai jadwal wave 2

Oil naik, ELSA sama MEDC lanjut kayanya, gold silver copper ijo, timah nikel merah, kayanya tapi ga akan ngaruh banyak ke MDKA ANTM INCO TINS. Market globalnya lagi jelek

Gas turun gede, coal turun dikit, masih diatas 400, masih long bullish

CPO naik, consumer lagi naik juga, kita assess AALI sama LSIP nanti

Udah beres tutup gap, keliatannya lanjut ke bawah, hati hati yang pegang barang, kalo profit TP setengah dulu lah, kalo masih pede mau naik, jaga2 ready cash untuk belanja lagi nanti di ujung wave 2

IHSG – prepare worst case scenario, dibawa tutup gap 6740. Walau dari theory elliot wave 2 berhenti di fibo 38 @6973 juga sah sah aja

Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, Consumer Cyclicals

Energy – masih belum breakout phase sideways, tapi stoch sudah buy, MACD lagi siap2, LR cross midline, still wave 5, Foreign mulai big entry, bandar juga. Sepertinya next giliran ELSA MEDC PGAS manggung, bukan cuma Coal

ADRO ELSA

MEDC ELSA PGAS ADRO AKRA

MEDC – masih wave 3, opening gap terus lari 20%, firm vol breakout, tapi ga berani beli di pucuk, idealnya tunggu tutup gap, moderate nya buy di tengah candle kemaren plus 1 tick. Kalo masih ga berani, bareng saya aja buy ELSA yang belum lari terlalu jauh

ELSA – breakout fibo 23, vol breakout, PSAR buy, stoch sw, macd Buy, FNB, oil price naik, BOW, target buy level di fibo 23 –> 308 +1 tick

PGAS – all good, sedikit ganjelan cuma foreign movement relatif menurun, tapi 2 candle terakhir net buy. Yang belum punya BOW di setengah candle kemaren +1tick –> 1755

ADRO – seandainya kemaren pas turun udah ketutup gap 2960, pede banget buat buy ADRO. Tapi stoch buy, macdbuy, LR up, PSAR Up, supertrend up alligator up,FNB, bandar akum kecil, vol breakout, BOW deh nambah muatan, target buy level 3270

 

Heatlhcare – All Good.

MIKA

HEAL KLBF SIDO

MIKA – stoch sw macd buy foreign masih cuek, bandar akum dikit, wave 3, LR ok, buy setengah botol dulu, nambah begitu ada konfirmasi vol breakout

HEAL – stoch up, macd buy, abc dorrection done, LR up, psar up, foreign bandar masih cuek, BOW gap closing

KLBF – macd up, stoch rev, foreign exit, wave C, LR galau, rada ga meyakinkan ini euy

SIDO – foreign sama bandar masih buang, MACD buy, stoch almost sell, LR ok, PSAR UP. WNS dulu deh, kecuali yg bottom fishing dan buy average

Consumer Non-Cyclicals – diluar ABC correction yang mantul sebelum sampe fbo 1.68, all good

INDF

Banyak yang big akum dan FNB

INDF – Stoch up, macd buy, LR up, PSAR dikitlagi, wave 4 seems done, otw wave 5, bandar ff akum, supertrend & alligator belum, vol belum

Buy setengah dulu, begitu breakout nambah

Banyak banget yang gerak bareng, milih review CPIN sama AALI aja ya, retail INDF, ayam CPIN, cpo AALI, rokok skip

CPIN – stoch up macd up, bandar akum, foreign exit dikit, alligator up supertrend up, retracement pattern otw fibo 61 lagi kejedot 38, pas psychological level 6000, LR UP PSAR UP, tunggu breakout 6000 aja ini semoga lari kenceng. Yang belum punya buy sekarang mumpung belum lari

Kalo mau safe beli setengah dulu, breakout 6000 nambah

AALI – belum ini… malah baru ada candle vol buangan 3 hari lalu. MACD juga baru sell. Skip

Consumer Cyclicals – mulai menarik… Stoch buy MACD balik buy lagi, retracement pattern mantul di 23 lagi test 38, LR test, entah kejedot entah ganti slope, PSAR masih down, breakout ichimoku cloud, bandar akum ff entry, okok deh

Dari sini belum ada buy signal baru, ACES menarik di akum dan FNB

ACES BOGA MNCN SMSM

ACES – abis drop jauh udah mantul lumayan, tapi amannya setelah bikin higher low baru entry. Stoch buy lagi setelah baru sell, macd up, psar up, LRkayanya mentok, retracement pattern masih jauh dari fibo 23, masih mungkin lanjut up atau turun dulu sebelum testing fibo 23, bandar akum ff akum, MFI up, sabar deh, tunggu higher low, kita entry pas mantul

MNCN – testing fibo 61 gagal dibanting sampe fibo 23, mungkin mantul disini, tapi macd masih down, stoch sudah buy, bandar ff masih out, alligator down, supertrend up, LR downpsar down, WNS dulu

Stoch Buy Signal – UNTR

UNTR – stoch buy, macd sw, foreign inside, bandar distribusi, MFI down, alligator sw supertrend up, ada gap di bawah, ah skip ah, bisa jadi PHP ini. Index rawan koreksi dan sektornya bukan giliran jalan

MACD signal – ADRO INDF TLKM DOID ELSA PRDA Healthcare

TLKM – keliatan dipaksa naik walau sektornya turun, ada hajat apa ini? Bandar akum foreign akum. Technically lagi wave 3 stochbuy macd balik buy lagi, alligator supertrend up, LR mentok atas, PSAR up.

Cup With Handle? Mungkin aja sih…

Elliot Wave nya mungkin begini… Tunggu vol breakout deh, speculative buy, sekarang WNS dulu