Daily Analysis 20220822

Global Update:

August 22th, 2022

Good morning,

Stocks fall Friday to notch weekly loss, S&P 500 snaps 4-week-long rally

Stocks tumbled on Friday as Wall Street’s summer rally faltered and rate hike fears resurfaced, leading the major averages to end the week on a sour note.

Dow…….33707 -292.3 -0.86%
Nasdaq.12705 -260.1 -2.01%
S&P 500..4228 -55.3 -1.29%

FTSE…….7550 +8.5 +0.11%
Dax……..13545 -152.9 -1.12%
CAC……..6496 -61.6 -0.94%

Nikkei….28930 -11.8 -0.04%
HSI……..19773 +9.1 +0.05%
Shanghai..3258 -19.5 -0.59%
ST Times..3247 -26.97 -0.82%

IDX…….7172.43 -14.12 -0.29%
LQ45…1022.99 -3.35 -0.33%

IDX Energy…1825.18 +9.81 +0.54%
IDX Bsc Mat.1310.37 -5.91 -0.45%
IDX Industrl..1322.31 -8.32 -0.63%
IDXNONCYC..713.09 +1.38 +0.19%
IDX Hlthcare.1407.90 +8.32 +0.59%
IDXCYCLIC…..894.77 +2.22 +0.25%
IDX Techno..8045.99 -6.50 -0.08%
IDX Transp…2075.11 -11.61 -0.56%
IDX Infrast…..1042.69 -1.80 -0.17%
IDX Finance 1506.21 -6.01 -0.40%
IDX Banking..1141.81 -9.99 -0.83%
IDX Property…715 -4.7 -0.65%

Indo10Yr….7.1655 +0.0140 +0.20%
ICBI……..336.2590 -0.1379 -0.04%
US10Yr…..2.9890 +0.1090 +3.78%
VIX………….19.56 -0.34 -1.71%

USDIndx 108.1690 +0.6850 +0.64%‼
Como Indx..292.03 +1.70 +0.59%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..157.48 +1.08 +0.69%
.
IndoCDS…110.95 +3.65 +3.40%‼
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14838.00 +1.50 +0.01%
Jisdor..14858 .00 +38.00 +0.24%

Euro………1.0040 -0.0049 -0.49%

TLKM……..30.66 -0.14 -0.45%
(4555)
EIDO………23.61 -0.25 -1.05%
EEM………39.90 -0.55 -1.36%

Oil…………..90.77 +0.14 +0.15%
Gold ……..1762.90 -9.60 -0.54%
Timah. .24795.00 +200. 00 +0.81%
( Closed 18/8)
Nickel….22071.00 +198.00 +0.91%
(Closed 18/8)
Silver…….19.18 -0.37 -1.89%
Copper….367.10 +2.20 +0.60%

Nturl Gas…..9.280 +0.108 +1.18%

Ammonia….3750.00 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(18/8)

Coal price….416.25 +2.35 +0.57%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price….443.75 +8.75 +2.01%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….434.90 +8.60 +2.02%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….371.25 +6.25 +1.71%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….391.80 +12.70 +3.35%‼
(Sept/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….380.25 +12.20 +3.29%‼
(Okt/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4084 +37 +0.91%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..623.25 +7.50 +1.22%
SoybeanOil…65.70 +1.43 +2.22%
Wheat………771.00 +22.00 +2.94%

Wood pulp…6700.00 unch +0%
(Closed 21/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US closing jum’at merah lumayan dalem, overall merah juga, asia juga. Jadi kayanya ini IHSG wave 2

Harga commodity terkait energy, oil gas coal naik semua, sesuai sama gerakan sektoral nya juga

Metal varied, gold silver turun, timah nikel copper naik. CPO juga naik

FTSE GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX SERIES ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EX CHINA SEPTEMBER 2022 SEMI ANNUAL REVIEW

(The changes will be effective after the close of business on Friday, 16 September 2022 (i.e. on Monday, 19 September 2022)

INDONESIA

• LARGE CAP

Inclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya) – Large Cap Addition

Exclusions :
-BRIS (Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk) – Large to Mid

• MID CAP

Inclusions :
-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid
-BRIS (Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk) – Large to Mid
-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid
-MSIN (MNC Studios International) – Mid Cap Addition

Exclusions :
-ADRO (Adaro Energy PT) – Mid to Large

• SMALL CAP

Inclusions :
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)

Exclusions :
-AVIA (Avia Avian) – Small to Mid
-ISAT (Indosat) – Small to Mid

• MICRO CAP

Inclusions :
-ABMM (ABM Investama)
-ARCI (Archi Indonesia)
-NOBU (Bank Nationalnobu)
-BMSR (Bintang Mitra Semestaraya)
-BUDI (Budi Starch & Sweetener)
-DLTA (Delta Jakarta)
-IMAS (Indomobil Sukses Internasional)
-INDR (Indorama Synthetics)
-KAEF (Kimia Farma)
-PBID (Panca Budi Idaman)
-PANS (Panin Sekuritas)
-PTRO (Petrosea)
-RMKE (RMK Energy)
-SAMF (Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur)
-SPMA (Suparma)
-TRIM (Trimegah Sekuritas)
-CARE (Victoria Care)

Exclusions :
-BALI (Bali Towerindo Sentra)
-BULL (Buana Listya Tama)
-UFOE (Damai Sejahtera Abadi)
-INDY (Indika Energy Tbk PT)
-KIJA (Kawasan Industri Jababeka)
-RSGK (Kedoya Adyaraya)
-FILM (MD Pictures)
-MLPL (Multipolar)
-PZZA (Sarimelati Kencana)
-SSMS (Sawit Sumbermas Sarana )
-SMSM (Selamat Sempurna)
-RANC (Supra Boga Lestari)
-ESSA (Surya Esa Perkasa)
-TMAS (Temas)

• FTSE ALL-WORLD (LM)

Inclusions :
-ISAT (Indosat)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)

Exclusions : –

• FTSE ALL-CAPS (LMS)

Inclusions :
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)

Exclusions : –

• FTSE TOTAL-CAP (LMSµ)

Inclusions : (Yang disini harusnya efek rebalancing jadi naik)
-ABMM (ABM Investama)
-ARCI (Archi Indonesia)
-NOBU (Bank Nationalnobu)
-BMSR (Bintang Mitra Semestaraya)
-BUDI (Budi Starch & Sweetener)
-DLTA (Delta Jakarta)
-IMAS (Indomobil Sukses Internasional)
-INDR (Indorama Synthetics)
-SIDO (Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sido Muncul)
-KAEF (Kimia Farma)
-HEAL (Medikaloka Hermina)
-MSIN (MNC Studios International)
-PBID (Panca Budi Idaman)
-PANS (Panin Sekuritas)
-PTRO (Petrosea)
-RMKE (RMK Energy)
-SAMF (Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur)
-AMRT (Sumber Alfaria Trijaya)
-SPMA (Suparma)
-TRIM (Trimegah Sekuritas)
-CARE (Victoria Care Indonesia)

Exclusions : -(Yang disini efek rebalancing harusnya turun…)
-BALI (Bali Towerindo Sentra)
-BULL (Buana Listya Tama)
-UFOE (Damai Sejahtera Abadi)
-INDY (Indika Energy Tbk PT)
-KIJA (Kawasan Industri Jababeka)
-RSGK (Kedoya Adyaraya)
-FILM (MD Pictures)
-MLPL (Multipolar)
-PZZA (Sarimelati Kencana)
-SSMS (Sawit Sumbermas Sarana)
-SMSM (Selamat Sempurna)
-RANC (Supra Boga Lestari)
-ESSA (Surya Esa Perkasa)
-TMAS (Temas)

 

*****

(Listri Samudra | Phintraco Sekuritas (AT), Source : FTSE – Disclaimer On)

Ini penting buat dicermati pas ujung bulan, fund manager luar akan tuker barang yang keluar dari index FTSE sama yang baru masuk. Ini bentuk pertanggungjawaban dia ke client nya, bahwa mereka invest di saham yang di-rate bagus oleh FTSE. Kalaupun misalnya jual rugi ga masalah mereka

 

Candle terakhir IHSG kaya candle rejection, Long Upper Shadow, beware mau jadi drop wave 2 dulu…

IHSG – stoch sw, macd sw, FF up, bandar jum’at distribusi, MFI down, LR kaya mentok, PSAR masih UP. Rawan banget koreksi ini…

Property Leading, Energy rising lagi, Healthcare & Consumer Non-Cyclicals siap jalan, Consumer Cyclicals keliatan ok disini tapi terakhir asses detail koq ga bagus. Kita liat lagi deh

Property – Stoch Sell, MACD sw, bandar exit, FF masuk, MFI sell, belum test fibo 23 udah lemes duluan, kena hidden bearsih divergence, LR says sell, PSAR hampir sell

BSDE PWON FNB Bandar Big Akum

Arahnya masih bagus BSDE PWON

BSDE – Stoch SW, belum overbought, MACD Up, Supertrend Alligator UP, FF flat setelah sebelumnya naik, bandar akum, MFI sell, ichimoku masih up belum lama breakout cloud, retracement pattern masih OTW FIbo 38 di 1005 harusnya, lanjut sih harusnya

PWON – stoch overbought sw, macd still UP, FF entry, bandar akum, ichimoku kejedot cloud terus turun, MFI sell, Supertrend & alligator up, retracement pattern mentok di fibo 50 balik ke 38 harusnya bikin tail aja cukup terus otw 61. LR kejedot upper channel semoga ganti slope bukan ketarik kebawah, PSAR up. Masih hold sih, belum ada candle volume buangan juga

Energy – harusnya lagi wave 5, udah break level puncak wave 3 terus sideways dulu, LR slope ke atas, lagi di tengah bisa kemana aja, PSAR up, stoch buy, macd abis sell lagi sideways, supertrend alligator up, ichimoku lagging line diatas candle –> bullish, FF masih ok, bandar yang jelek keliatan exit, MFI SW. Menghadapi musim dingin eropa dan krisis energy karena rusia, harusnya lanjut long bullish sih

MACD Buy signal: ADRO PGAS.
PGAS – FNB, bandar big akum, ada vol breakout, belum lama ada spike juga

PGAS – Stoch buy, MACD buy, alligator buy, supertrend close, wave 3, vol breakout, FNB, Bandar big akum, yang belum punya, BUY

ADRO – sayangnya kemaren pas turun ga tutup gap, jadi ragu2 mau nambah muatan lagi. Stoch buy, MACD buy, supertrend up, alligator buy, wave 3, harusnya lanjut. IHSG memang rawan koreksi tapi semoga saham yang ada hajatnya tetep jalan

ELSA

ELSA – stoch sell macd sell bandar distribusi, foreign akum terus, belum breakout fibo 23, kalo berhasil breakout fibo 23 with volume ini harusnya firm finally jalan, LR cross up midline. WNS sih, tunggu breakout with volume

Heatlhcare – udah siap naik, stoch buy macd hampir cross MFI buy posisi di level fibo78 jadi support area LR di lower channel siap mantul. Tinggal tunggu momentum diajalanin

MIKA HEAL FNB, MIKA bandar big akum

MIKA – lagi sideways, stoch abis sell signal terus SW, macd dikit lagi cross, MFI up, bandar & foreign mulai gerak akum, masih wave 3, tinggal tunggu jalannya aja, LR siap mantul, PSAR masih Up

 

HEAL – stoch buy, mach almost buy, MFI up, ff belum, bandar belum, abc correction level done, LR up, psar up. Yang belum punya bisa BOW, kayanya index hari ini merah, kalo iya dan HEAL turun bisa belanja

Keliatannya healthcare akan jadi contrarian index

Consumer Non-Cyclicals – almost perfect ini… Stoch up macd buy bandar&foreign akum, supertrend alligator belum, mfi down, ABC nya berhenti sebelum sampe level normal, almost flat tapi, sah sah aja sih, LR channel up, di lower sudah mulai mantul

FNB dan bandar big akum dimana mana, AMRT CPIN JPFA UNVR DSNG TAPG

Belum ada signal baru setelah CPIN buy signal kemaren

Arahnya bareng bagus banyak banget, kita pilih aja yang haircut kecil, rasio value belum kemahalan dan bukan produsen rokok ya… CPIN INDF AALI

CPIN – stoch uy, macd almost buy, FF akum bandar akum, MFI sw, testing fibo 38 OTW fibo 61 @6675,LR up PSAR buy, vol breakout confirmation kamis. Masih BOW yang belum punya

INDF – Ini juga almost perfect, stoch up, macd hampir buy, bandar & foreign akum, PBV PER masih reasonable dibanding UNVR, harusnya mau wave 5, LR mau mantul. WNS tunggu vol breaout aja ini sih

AALI – waduh belum yang ini mah, kecuali berani bottom fishing… Tapi index mau terjun mah bukan saat yang baik buat bottom fishing

Consumer Cyclicals – busuk… stoch sell macd sell alligator sideways, supertrend masih up, candle rejection di fibo 38, balik 23 dulu deh, LR down PSAR down… tadinya mau buy ERAA cancel ah

Stay away dulu