Daily Analysis 20220818

Global Update:

August 18th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow closes lower Wednesday to end 5-day win streak, Wall Street mulls new retail data

Stocks fell on Wednesday as the rally that has pushed prices higher since mid-June appeared to lose steam. Traders also assessed the latest retail data and minutes from the Federal Reserve.

Dow…….33980 -171.7 -1.19%
Nasdaq.12938 -164.4 -1.25%
S&P 500..4274 -31.2 -0.72%

FTSE…….7516 -20.3 -0.27%
Dax……..13623 -283.4 -2.04%
CAC……..6528 -64.3 -0.97%

Nikkei….29223 +353.9 +1.23%
HSI……..19922 +91.9 +0.46%
Shanghai..3293 +14.6 +0.45%
ST Times..3263 +8.97 +0.28%

IDX…….7133.45 closed +0%
LQ45…1016.36 closed +0%

IDX Energy…1793.62 closed +0%
IDX Bsc Mat.1323.86 closed +0%
IDX Industrl..1315.55 closed +0%
IDXNONCYC..704.94 closed +0%
IDX Hlthcare.1406.35 closed +0%
IDXCYCLIC…..890.29 closed +0%
IDX Techno..8085.17 closed +0%
IDX Transp…2080.68 closed +0%
IDX Infrast…..1046.77 closed +0%
IDX Finance 1508.92 closed +0%
IDX Banking..1147.53 closed +0%
IDX Property…..721 closed +0%

Indo10Yr….7.1494 closed +0%
ICBI……..336.2197 closed +0%
US10Yr…..2.8930 +0.0690 +2.44%
VIX………….19.90 +0.21 +1.07%

USDIndx 106.5740 +0.0740 +0.07%‼
Como Indx..288.87 +1.20 +0.42%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..156.42 -2.30 -1.45%
.
IndoCDS…101.60 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14768.00 closed +0%
Jisdor..14767 .00 closed +0%

Euro………1.0179 +0.0009 +0.09%

TLKM……..30.70 -0.10 -0.32%
(4533)
EIDO………23.84 -0.14 -0.58%
EEM………40.68 -0.17 -0.42%

Oil…………..87.50 +0.49 +0.56%
Gold ……..1777.80 -12.00 -0.67%
Timah. .24600.00 -121. 00 -0.49%
( Closed 16/8)
Nickel…21971.00 -580.50 -2.57%‼
(Closed 17/8)
Silver…….19.85 -0.35 -1.73%
Copper….358.55 -3.90 -1.08%

Nturl Gas…..9.206 -0.142 -1.52%

Ammonia….3750.00 unch +0%
China
(Domestic Price)(16/8)

Coal price….413.90 +8.90 +2.19%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price….436.90 +11.55 +2.71%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….428.60 +11.60 +3.59%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….359.75 +1.70 +0.47%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price….375.40 +6.40 +1.73%
(Sept/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….366.60 +6.10 +1.69%
(Okt/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……4200 +17 +0.41%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..612.00 +1.75 +0.29%
SoybeanOil…65.60 -0.46 -0.70%
Wheat………780.50 -22.25 -2.77%

Wood pulp…6710.00 -10 -0.15%
(Closed 17/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

DJI mau wave 2 juga? Mungkin aja. Yang jelas sering gitu IHSG, pas US ijo tebel kita libur, pas masuk pas US merah, jadi ikut turunnya doang, hehehe…

Closing rabu index di Asia ijo, europe merah, US merah

Metal2 turun semua, oil coal cpo naik, gas turun. Mau masuk winter energy lari lagi kayanya. Kita cari momentum re-entry saham coal dan oil ya.

Walau tgl 16 ijo tebel tapi keliatannya tetep mau wave 2, turun dulu tutup gap

GOTO naik 10% yang ngangkat index banget, yang ijo cuma 192 dari 788 emiten

IHSG – cuma Supertrend dan alligator yang masih up

Masih sama, Infra Property, next Consumer Non-Cyclicals Heathcare

Telco melemah, TOWR BUMN Karya JSMR arahnya bagus

EXCL – hampir semua suggest turun dulu, sepertinya harus exit dulu kalo ada DCB, ga ada ciri ciri bakal dijadiin ganjel index soalnya. Belum ada candle dengan vol tinggi sih sebenernya

JSMR – impulse wave failed, break low wave 2, mesti narik ulang. Stoch MACD bagus, tinggal tunggu volume breakout ini bisa entry ulang. Kemaren ada vol naik tapi ga break resistance

EXCL stoch sell, banyak masih FNB di infra…

Property – kecuali stoch yang overbought dan sudah sell signal, yang lain masih ok semua

BSDE CTRA LPKR bandar big akum

BSDE CTRA PWON LPKR

BSDE – all good, kecuali kemungkinan index mau wave 2 sih… Kalo sudah keliatan mentok di fibo 38 atau 50 sell sebagian, selesai minor correctionya re-entry di level fibo dibawahnya re-check stoch

Consumer Non-Cyclicals – lagi sideways siap2 up, stoch sudah buy signal

AMRT TAPG

INDF AALI

AMRT – ga mau nurut bikin ABC correction standard, LR mantul stoch buy macd buy, bandar foreign akum, PER tinggi banget 38, ga deh buy yang ini…

TAPG – idealnya beli di gap closing, sekalian beresin wave B sebelum lanjut

INDF – kemaren ada candle merah dengan volume buangan, entah kenapa maksabawa harga turun pake buang barang banyak. Kita tunggu MACD aja deh baru assess lagi

AALI – bandar&foreign masih distribusi, tapi abis drop udah sideways lumayan lama, tinggal nunggu mantulnya, tunggu ada stoch buy dan vol breakout lagi deh

Healthcare – usah siap mantul, all says so, memang bandar dan foreign belum entry lagi, pas entry MACD cross ada volume pas bareng nanti kayanya

HEAL KLBF

HEAL – siap mantul stoch buy, macd dikit lagi, LR mantul, psar buy, ABC correction kalo ditarik B nya kecil sekarang udah done, vol breakout udah ada kemaren, PBV PER tinggi tapi, jangan panjang panjang pegangnya deh. Kalo dapet buy di harga close kemaren

Average bandarmasih deket sama harga sekarang, masih ok ini HEAL

KLBF – stoch up macd buy LR test midline, tapi ini belum beres ABC, bisa jadi cuma naik dikit wave B terus drop lagi wave C. belum ada vol breakout, WNS deh

MIKA

MIKA – belum stoch macd ke bawah lagi, WNS

Stoch Buy Signal

ADRO PTBA HEAL

ADRO – masih ada gap dibawah, dan ABC correction belum beres, winter start nya masih lama kalo buat start rally dari sekarang… Kayanya belum akan rally dulu walau stoch udah buy dan ada unclosed gap diatas. Tapi yang issue besar gini jangan sampe ga punya barang, kapan aja bisa digoreng lagi soalnya

Apakah akan begini? Sekarang lagi wave 2? Mungkin aja sih, Tapi too soon IMHO

MACD signal

AMRT KLBF