Daily Analysis 20220803

Global Update:

August 03rd, 2022

Good morning,

Stocks fall a second day on U.S.-China tensions, hawkish comments from Fed leaders

Stocks slumped on Tuesday as investors weighed increased tensions between the U.S. and China with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit and reacted to comments from Federal Reserve presidents about the central bank’s path forward.

Dow…….32396 -402.2 -1.23%
Nasdaq.12349 -20.2 -0.16%
S&P 500..4091 -27.4 -0.67%

FTSE…….7409 -4.3 -0.06%
Dax……..13449 -30.4 -0.23%
CAC……..6410 -27.1 -0.42%

Nikkei….27595 -398.6 -1.42%
HSI……..19689 -473.6 -2.36%
Shanghai..3186 -73.7 -2.26%
ST Times..3239 +0.4 +0.01%

IDX…….6988.16 +19.37 +0.28%
LQ45…..988.61 +6.62 +0.67%

IDX Energy…1815.73 -51.05 -2.74%
IDX Bsc Mat.1287.59 -8.66 -0.67%
IDX Industrl..1328.62 +23.6 +1.81%
IDXNONCYC..705.19 -2.9 -0.41%
IDX Hlthcare.1434.52 +1.08 +0.08%
IDXCYCLIC…..896.33 -0.08 -0.01%
IDX Techno..7637.16 -17.54 -0.23%
IDX Transp…1993.47 -7.10 -0.35%
IDX Infrast……999.00 +2.92 +0.29%
IDX Finance 1504.78 +0.28 +0.02%
IDX Banking..1131.86 +10.06 +0.90%
IDX Property…….689 -1.80 -0.26%

Indo10Yr….7.2855 +0.0080 +0.11%
ICBI……..332.9254 -0.1759 -0.05%
US10Yr…..2.7410 +0.1350 +5.18%
VIX…………23.94 +1.09 +4.77%

USDIndx 106.2410 +0.7910 +0.75%‼
Como Indx..283.11 -5.95 -2.04%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..154.30 -2.46 -1.57%

IndoCDS…127.15 +7.07 +5.89%‼
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14889.00 +16.00 +0.11%
Jisdor..14888.00 +14.00 +0.09%

Euro………1.0170 -0.0092 -0.90%

TLKM……..28.60 -0.14 -0.49%
(4258)
EIDO………23.14 -0.09 -0.39%
EEM………39.43 -0.19 -0.48%

Oil…………93.70 -0.21 -0.22%
Gold ……1773.60 -15.30 -0.86%
Timah. .25047.00 – –
( Closed 29/7)
Nickel…22342.00 -2002.00 -8.22%‼
(Closed 02/8)
Silver…….19.92 -0.40 -1.97%
Copper….347.55 -6.05 -1.71%

Nturl Gas…..7.676 -0.542 -6.59%‼

Ammonia….3773.33 +83.33 +2.26%
China
(Domestic Price)(01/8)

Coal price….403.50 -1.50 -0.37%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price….395.75 +2.35 +0.60%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….366.05 +0.55 +0.15%
(Agt/Rotterdam)
Coal price…351.00 -2.30 -0.65%
(Sept/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Okt)…..3841 -232 -5.69%‼
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………594.25 -15.50 -2.54%
SoybeanOil…61.39 -1.87 -2.96%
Wheat………774.75 -25.50 -3.19%‼

Wood pulp…67160.00 +26 +0.39%
(Closed 02/8)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, yBursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.

Semua index regional closing merah kecuali IDX sama ST times. Tensi US-China ceritanya

Semua commodity juga turun, nikel cpo gas drop significant. Coal tipis tipis

IHSG – stochastic sell signal, bilang harus turun, MACD masih mungkin lanjut, alligator buy, supertrend juga buy, LR indikasi lanjut ke upper channel sekalian tutup gap atas

Kemaren sempet minus rada dalam, pas closing ditarik sampe ijo lagi. Semoga memang skenarionya tutupgap atas dulu baru koreksi wave2

Masih industrials sama energy

Industrials – Stoch sudah overbought dan sell signal, bandar masih akum terus, foreign juga, sedang wave 5, udah ketemu bearish divergence, rada critical ini… Yang masih pegang ASII UNTR BMTR pantau ketat, terutama BMTR yang sudah naik tinggi, ASII masih lebih aman

KBLI ASII masih OK, BMTR UNTR hati hati

UNTR sampai kemarin masih big accumulation dan FNB

KBLI – LR suggest ke atas, Parabolic SAR juga, retracement pattern wave C, alligator buy, supertrend up, MACD masih up, stoch mau sell, semoga cuma minor correction or sideways terus lanjut ke atas

Sejak konfirmasi volume untuk buy belum ada vol besar dengan candle turun, supposedly masih firm ke atas

ASII – stoch buy, MACD up, alligator buy, vol confirmation buy, supertrend dikiiiiit lagi, retracement patterm sudah touch retrace ke fibo 23, suppsedly going to fibo 61,LR test midline, parabolis SAR still up. ASII BOW ya

Energy – masih wave 5, rada mengkhawatirkan udah ketemu bearish divergenve RSI, memang masih prospek karena mendekati musim dingin di bumi utara, tapi bisa jadi akan ABC correction dulu, agak dalem biasanya. Stoch Sell, MACD masih up tapi melemah, alligator dan supertrend masih up, personally saya sell sebagian, keep sebagian biar ga ketinggalan kalo lanjut

MEDC PGAS. Coal relatively cape dulu

Coal pada sell signal, beware yang masih pegang, kecuali memang sudah jelas trading plan nya mau re entry dimana

MEDC – cum date tgl 5, wait dulu buy abis itu deh, resiko deviden trap… LR galau, bisa mantul bisa test lower channel, masih wave 3 major nya, alias masih uptrend, supertrend buy, alligator almost buy, parabolic sar up. WNS until after cum date ya

PGAS – kejedot midline LR dan supertrend, stoch sideways, MACD masih up, major aman, masih di wave 3, alligator buy, setelah candle vol confirmation belum ada konfirmasi kebalikannya, semogacuma sideways terus lanjut up. Yang belum entry masih ok BOW, tapi beware kalo ada konfirmasi vol candle bearish kita exit

ADRO – stoch sell signal, MACD masih up, belum tutup gap, masih ada kemungkinan naik dulu tutup gap sebelum koreksi wave c, tapi liat candle nya dan sektor nya, lebih besar kemungkinan langsung turun sih. Alligator belum lama signal buy, supertrend juga. Long term ok, short term koreksi dulu keliatannya. Kita pantau ketat waktu re entry

Index dan sektor2 kurang menggembirakan… HEAL BBCA kita liat

BBCA – tembus upper channel LR, stoch buy lagi, aligator buy, supertrend buy, ada gap di atas, retracement pattern suggest minor correction ke 7300 – 7500 sebelum lanjut ke 7800

HEAL – stoch buy, macd masih down, aligator down, LR suggest mantul ke midline, ABC correction mau wave B, belum berani entry karena index galau dan sektornya bukan sektor leading, kecuali keluar konfirmasi dari volume transaksi

MACD signal…