Daily Analysis 20220726

Global Update:

July 26th, 2022

Good morning,

Stocks during Monday’s session traded in a narrow range.
All of the major averages are on track for their best month of the year.

Traders are bracing for an onslaught of mega-cap tech earnings and economic data this week, as well as the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, that will help Wall Street direct its expectations for the rest of the year.

But, U.S. stock futures fell on Monday night after Walmart cut its profit forecast, sending retail stocks tumbling after hours.

Dow…….31990 +90.8 +0.28%
Nasdaq.11783 -51.5 -0.43%
S&P 500..3967 +5.2 +0.13%

FTSE…….7306 +29.9 +0.41%
Dax……..13210 -43.4 -0.33%
CAC……..6238 +20.7 +0.33%

Nikkei….27699 -215.4 -0.77%
HSI……..20563 -46.2 -0.22%
Shanghai..3250 -19.6 -0.60%
ST Times..3184 +2.2 +0.07%

IDX…….6858.41 -28.56 -0.41%
LQ45…..967.13 -6.91 -0.71%

IDX Energy…1741.10 +16.38 +0.95%
IDX Bsc Mat.1275.25 -5.53 -0.43%
IDX Industrl..1219.82 +5.60 +0.46%
IDXNONCYC..724.61 +1.05 +0.15%
IDX Hlthcare.1514.97 -6.81 -0.45%
IDXCYCLIC…..887.23 -0.18 -0.02%
IDX Techno..7817.61 -262.43 -3.25%
IDX Transp…1955.61 -38.10 -1.91%
IDX Infrast……982.15 +6.51 +0.67%
IDX Finance 1464.19 -8.89 -0.60%
IDX Banking..1090.07 -7.07 -0.64%
IDX Property…….678 +1.30 +0.19%

Indo10Yr….7.4917 -0.0106 -0.14%
ICBI……….328.0307 +0.0642 +0.02%
US10Yr…..2.8200 +0.0370 +1.33%
VIX…………23.26 +0.33 +1.43%

USDIndx 106.4830 -0.2470 -0.23%
Como Indx..284.76 +3.60 +1.28%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..148.20 -0.95 -0.64%

IndoCDS…132.27 -4.97 -3.62%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14993.00 -20.50 -0.14%
Jisdor..14992.00 -32.00 -0.21%

Euro………1.0220 +0.0007 +0.07%

TLKM……..27.95 +0.01 +0.04%
(4190)
EIDO………22.60 +0.10 +0.44%
EEM………39.56 +0.14 +0.36%

Oil…………96.31 +1.61 +1.70%
Gold ……1734.80 -10.35 -0.60%
Timah. .24947.00 – -%
( Closed 22/7)
Nickel..22102.50 -271.50 -1.21%
(Closed 25/7)
Silver…….18.30 -0.32 -1.72%
Copper….335.40 -0.55 -0.16%

Nturl Gas…..8.618 +0.313 +3.77%

Ammonia….369033 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(21/7)

Coal price….410.25 +1.05 +0.26%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…411.05 +12.00 +3.00%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…387.35 +11.05 +2.94%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…364.00 +27.20 +8.08%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Okt)…..3646 -161 -1.57%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………583.75 +19.50 +3.46%
SoybeanOil…57.55 -0.32 -0.55%
Wheat………770.00 +11.00 +1.45%

Wood pulp…6640.00 +10 +0.15%
(Closed 25/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, yBursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
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US tipis tipis, nasdaq karena forecast pendapatan tech giants turun jadi minus duluan. Asia merah kecuali singapore, eropa cuma jerman yang merah, yang lain ikut US sesi satu jadi ijo

Metal turun semua, oil gas coal naik, cpo turun. Kita masih bisa expect saham coal terus naik walau index mungkin merah lagi. Keliatannya bagusan tutup gap dulu sih, biar ga ada “hutang”, hehehe…

Issue IKN digoreng buat naikin saham BUMN karya, tapi kalo cuma itu doang ga bisa panjang gerakannya keliatannya… Yang jelas sebelum firm sektornya jalan hati2 buy BUMN karya. Cucu nya aja malah suspended, WSBP, jadi korban dikasih proyek terus sama waskita tapi dibayarnya kapan kapan…

Index ketemu hidden bearish divergence, biasanya ya 3 hari mah koreksi. Tapi yang bikin khawatir bukan itu… Ada gap di bawah, dan ada satu lagi, di chart trading view ga ada tapi

Kalo di chart mansek ada opening gap pas index naik 2%, most likely ini mah ditutup dulu dalam waktu dekat

Semua melemah, ga bagus ini… Cuma energy yang jalan lagi

Sama industrials, tapi arahnya rather flat, bukan mendekati 45 derajat, ga ideal

Coal rata2 masih sih tapi ga kenceng lagi, oil gas lebih lesu lagi

Foreign net buy di ADRO ITMG PGAS sama PTBA, big accumulation di ADRO sama PTBA, recent freq spike di ITMG AKRA sama MBSS

ADRO – williams alligator bilang buy, stoch up macd up, LR mungkin kejedot midline, ada gap di 3430, mungkin nanti akan bikin wave C, jadi sambil pantau ketat, kalo udah tutup gap bijak untuk TP dulu, re-entry ketika ada konfirmasi continuation

AKRA – not so good, mungkin lagi mau wave C, LR mentok mid line keliatannya akan ke bawah, stoch buy tapi keliatan sideways, belum lama sell signal ini ngebalik buy. MACD line masih ok tapi histogram keliatan melemah. Just to b3 safe, tunggu wave C beres. Good thing nya, supertrend sama williams alligator bilang buy

MBSS – udah naik jauh banget dibanding tahun kemarin, saya buy di 300 sell di 500. Sekarang 1060 walau PBV nya masih relatif murah 0,76. Tapi technically kayanya akan koreksi wave C dulu, LR juga gagal breakout midline. Stoch MFI sama gerakan bandar dan foreign juga belum menggembirakan

Dari sini sih menarik banget MBSS… Tunggu beres koreksi deh

UNTR ASII

BMTR MACD buy dan FNB

UNTR – hampir ok semua, Stoch masih ok walau sudah overbought, MACD masih firm, supertrend buy alligator buy, ABC retracement pattern completed harusnya lanjut impulse elliot wave. Bandar dan foreign akum. Ada gap sedikit di bawah, kalo pullback ke level situ berarti kesempatan second chance buat entry

ASII – dibanding UNTR yang udah gerak lumayan duluan, ASII belum telat banget buat masuk, target retracement di 6975. Entry sekarang masih ok sesuai MACD. Lagi koreksi sesuai stoch 833, kalo balik buy bisa entry partial. Konfirmasi volume baru full load

BMTR – MACD Buy, stoch up, alligator buy, supertrend up, wave 5, LR masih di midline, bisa partial entry, sambil nunggu konfirmasi volume

PBV nya 0,33 rendah banget, mau diangkat sampe 3 kali lipat juga masih sah sah aja. ASII PBV 1.37 UNTR PBV 1.5

Stoch Signal

ITMG AGII AKRA

MACD signal

PTPP BMTR ISAT

ITMG – keliatannya lanjut ini, tinggal berapa jauh, nanti kita ukur pake elliot wave begitu sudah bikin higher low