Daily Analysis 20220714

Global update:
July 14th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow slides 200 points, stocks dip as inflation hits highest level since 1981

Stocks slipped on Wednesday after June inflation data hit its highest level since 1981, adding to growing fears that the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive in its fight to tame rising prices.

Dow…….30773 -208.5 -0.67%
Nasdaq.11248 -17.2 -0.15%
S&P 500..3802 -17.02 -0.45%

FTSE…….7156 -53.5 -0.74%
Dax……..12756 -149.2 -1.16%
CAC……..6000 -43.96 -0.73%

Nikkei….26479 +142.1 +0.54%
HSI……..20798 -46.8 -0.22%
Shanghai..3284 +2.8 +0.09%
ST Times..3129 -17.1 -0.54%

IDX…….6640.99 -77.30 -1.15%
LQ45…..936.43 -13.06 -1.38%

IDX Energy…1660.38 -17.60 -1.05%
IDX Bsc Mat.1221.13 +0.72 +0.06%
IDX Industrl..1169.52 -3.47 -0.30%
IDXNONCYC..704.65 -2.92 -0.41%
IDX Hlthcare.1530.11 -2.89 -0.19%
IDXCYCLIC…..861.74 -11.44 -1.31%
IDX Techno….7565.83 -136.59 -1.77%
IDX Transp…1930.09 -19.57 -1.00%
IDX Infrast……951.58 -5.49 -0.57%
IDX Finance 1405.88 -10.16 -0.72%
IDX Property…….668 – -%

Indo10Yr….7.3324 -0.0241 -0.33%
ICBI……….331.5352 +0.3765 +0.11%
*US10Yr…..2.9040 -0.0540 -1.83%*
*VIX…………26.82 -0.47 -1.72%*

*USDIndx 107.9570 -0.2120 -0.20%‼️*
Como Indx..277.94 +1.93 +0.70%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..144.75 -0.51 -0.35%

*IndoCDS…159.08 +2.38 +1.52%‼️*
(5-yr INOCD5)

*IDR……14991.50 -3.50 -0.02%‼️*
*Jisdor..14985.00 -8.00 -0.05%‼️*

*Euro………1.0054 +0.0018 +0.18%*

TLKM……..26.87 +0.33 +1.24%
*(4026)*
EIDO………21.46 -0.29 -1.33%
EEM……….38.78 -0.09 -0.23%

*Oil………….96.10 +0.26 +0.27%*
*Gold …….1733.60 +8.80 +0.51%*
*Timah. .25574.00 -689 -2.62%*
*( Closed 12/7)*
*Nickel…21026.50 -271.50 -1.27%*
*(Closed 13/7)*
Silver…….19.15 +0.19 +1.00%
Copper…..330.70 +1.90 +0.58%

*Nturl Gas…..6.598 +0.3640 +5.84%‼️*

Ammonia….3856.67 unch +0%
*China*
(Domestic Price)(12/7)

Coal price…430.00 +4.00 +0.94%
(Jul/Newcastle)
*Coal price…428.85 -9.55 -2.18%*
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…395.00 -2.50 -0.63%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…378.25 -6.15 -1.60%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

*CPO(Sept)…..3762 -371 -8.98%‼️*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………595.25 +8.75 +1.49%
SoybeanOil…56.71 -1.21 -2.09%
Wheat………..810.75 -3.50 -0.43%

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 13/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_
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Inflasi US tertinggi sejak 1981, pasti goyang… Ga lama lagi pasti naikin suku bunga deh. Kalo gini mah siap siap beneran diterusin kebawah ABC correction standar. Diluar energy mending exit kalo ada kesempatan, just to be safe

Kembali ke skenario ini? Mungkin saja, yang jelas kita harus siap kalo itu terjadi

Semua index regional merah, kecuali nikkei sama shanghai. IDX sama DAX yang rada dalem terjunnya.

Oil gold silver copper ijo, timah nikel merah lagi, gas rebound lumayan tinggi, coal masih lanjut naik, CPO drop

Yang masih firm aman dipegang cuma saham coal berarti

Energy Basic Material sama Transportasi yang bagus. Property melempem, tinggal finance nih, yang menentukan index mau kemana

Semua coal ok, AKRA PGAS ELSA agak mengkhawatirkan, tapi in the long run oil aman harusnya

ADRO – technical ok semua, fundamental ok, BDM yang masih jelek, belum mulai akum massive

Tapi harga sekarang masih dibawah harga average modal 3 broker terbesar, so relatively masih aman, ga ada bandar mau rugi jual dibawah modal

Masih distribusi, tapi harga ga dibawa turun lagi walau index drop. Semoga ga lama lagi mulai diangkat

AKRA – MACD baru cross, 833 overbought, abc correction mungkin sudah jalan wave c, LR ga break mid line, mungkin dibawa turun dulu, prepare dibawa ke 775

Mulai distribusi? Yang jelas jangan buy sekarang, mending buy dibawah average bandar

PGAS – mencurigakan, kaya mau dibawa turun dulu, kalo ada DCB mending exit dulu deh just to be safe. MACD melebar lagi, stoch abis buy signal mulai melemah tapi belum jalan ke arah overbought

Price relatif aman, tapi memang lagi mulai distribusi

ELSA – sideways dulu,mungkin dibawa ke bawah lagi ke level support 280, tapi masih ok sih. Kalo MACD cross berani nambah muatan

Masih dimainin, akum buang akum buang… tapi avg nya masih diatas harga sekarang

Masih ANTM INCO TINS MDKA, BRPT TPIA rada ga berani, tapi nanti kita liat deh

ANTM – indic oscillators bilang ok, ABC correction udah sampai level yang bisa dianggap selesai, tapi khawatirnya karena dibawah masih ada gap… dibawah level support kuat 1705

Jauh dibawah avg bandar, tapi masih pada distribusi, semoga di sekareng udah bottom

Kemaren akum tapi markdown, kejam sekali ini big player MDKA. OK buy lah kalo macdcross ini firm, harga jauh dibawah avg bandar

BRPT – waktunya mulai koreksi… wave b dulu, bikin higher low, baru nanti kita masuk di wave C