What Is Autocorrelation?

Autocorrelation is a mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals. It’s conceptually similar to the correlation between two different time series, but autocorrelation uses the same time series twice: once in its original form and once lagged one or more time periods. 

For example, if it’s rainy today, the data suggests that it’s more likely to rain tomorrow than if it’s clear today. When it comes to investing, a stock might have a strong positive autocorrelation of returns, suggesting that if it’s “up” today, it’s more likely to be up tomorrow, too.

Naturally, autocorrelation can be a useful tool for traders to utilize; particularly for technical analysts.

Understanding Autocorrelation

Autocorrelation can also be referred to as lagged correlation or serial correlation, as it measures the relationship between a variable’s current value and its past values.

As a very simple example, take a look at the five percentage values in the chart below. We are comparing them to the column on the right, which contains the same set of values, just moved up one row.

What Is an Asset Swapped Convertible Option Transaction (ASCOT)?

An asset swapped convertible option transaction (ASCOT) is a structured investment strategy in which an option on a convertible bond is used to separate a convertible bond into its two components: a fixed income piece and an equity piece. More specifically, the components being separated are the corporate bond with its regular coupon payments and the equity option that functions as a call option.

The ASCOT structure allows an investor to gain exposure to the option within the convertible without taking on the credit risk represented by the bond part of the asset. It is also used by convertible arbitrage traders seeking to profit from apparent mis-pricings between these two components.

Understanding Asset Swapped Convertible Option Transactions

ASCOTs are complex instruments that allow parties to take the role of equity investor and credit risk buyer/bond investor in what was initially sold as a combined instrument — the convertible bond itself.

An asset swapped convertible option transaction is done by writing (selling) an American option on the convertible bond. This essentially creates a compound option, as the convertible bond already comes with an embedded equity call option itself due to the conversion feature. The American option can be exercised by the holder at any time, but the strike price paid must include all the costs of unwinding the asset swap.

How an ASCOT Works

Convertible bond traders are exposed to two types of risk. One is the credit risk inherent in the bond portion of the investment. The other is the market volatility on the share price of the underlying, as it impacts whether or not the conversion option has any value.

For our purposes, let’s assume the convertible bond trader wants to focus on the equity angle of their convertible bond portfolio. To do this, the trader sells the convertible bond to an investment bank, which will be the intermediary in the transaction.

The investment bank structures the ASCOT by writing a call option on the convertible portion of the bond and selling it back to the convertible bond trader. The bond portion of the convertible bond with its payments is then sold to a different party who is prepared to take on the credit risk in return for the fixed returns. The bond component may be broken down into smaller denomination bonds and sold to multiple investors.

ACOTS and Convertible Arbitrage

When a convertible bond is stripped of its credit risk through an asset swap, the option holder is left with a volatile — but potentially very valuable — option. ASCOTs, specifically the equity portion, are bought and sold by hedge funds employing convertible arbitrage strategies. Hedge funds are able to easily increase their portfolios’ leverage because of the nature of the compound option within an ASCOT, leaving the less lucrative bond side and its credit risk out of the equation.

What Is an Assumable Mortgage?

An assumable mortgage is a type of financing arrangement whereby an outstanding mortgage and its terms are transferred from the current owner to a buyer. By assuming the previous owner’s remaining debt, the buyer can avoid obtaining their own mortgage. Different types of loans can qualify as assumable mortgages, though there are some special considerations to keep in mind.

Understanding Assumable Mortgages

Many homebuyers typically take out a mortgage from a lending institution to finance the purchase of a home or property. The contractual agreement for repaying the loan includes the interest that the borrower must pay, as well as the principal repayments to the lender.

If the homeowner decides to sell their home later, they may be able to transfer their mortgage to the homebuyer. In this case, the original mortgage taken out is assumable.

An assumable mortgage allows a homebuyer to assume the current principal balance, interest rate, repayment period, and any other contractual terms of the seller’s mortgage. Rather than going through the rigorous process of obtaining a home loan from the bank, a buyer can take over an existing mortgage.

There could be a cost-saving advantage if current interest rates are higher than the interest rate on the assumable loan. In a period of rising interest rates, the cost of borrowing also increases. When this happens, borrowers will face high interest rates on any loans approved. Therefore, an assumable mortgage is likely to have a lower interest rate, an attractive feature to buyers. If the assumable mortgage has a locked-in interest rate, it will not be impacted by rising interest rates. A mortgage calculator can be a good resource to budget for the monthly cost of your payment.

What Types of Loans Are Assumable?

Some of the most popular types of mortgages are assumable: Federal Housing Authority (FHA), Veterans Affairs (VA), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Buyers who wish to assume a mortgage from a seller must meet specific requirements and receive approval from the agency sponsoring the mortgage.

FHA loans

FHA loans are assumable when both transacting parties meet the requirements for the assumption. For instance, the property must be used by the seller as their primary residence. Buyers must first verify that the FHA loan is assumable and then apply as they would for an individual FHA loan. The seller’s lender will verify that the buyer meets the qualifications, including being creditworthy. If approved, the mortgage will be assumed by the buyer. However, unless the seller is released from the loan, they are still responsible for it.

VA loans

The Department of Veterans Affairs offers mortgages to qualified military members and spouses of military members. However, to assume a VA loan, the buyer need not be a member of the military to qualify. Although, the lender and the regional VA loan office will need to approve the buyer for the loan assumption, and most often, buyers who assume VA loans are military members.

For loans initiated before March 1, 1988, buyers may freely assume the VA loan. In other words, the buyer does not need the approval of the VA or the lender to assume the mortgage.

USDA loans

USDA loans are offered to buyers of rural properties. They require no down payment and often have low interest rates. To assume a USDA loan, the buyer must meet the standard qualifications, such as meeting credit and income requirements, and receive approval from the USDA to transfer title. The buyer may assume the existing rate of interest and loan terms or new rates and terms. Even if the buyer meets all requirements and received approval, the mortgage cannot be assumed if the seller is delinquent on payments.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Assumable Mortgages

The advantages of acquiring an assumable mortgage in a high-interest rate environment are limited to the amount of existing mortgage balance on the loan or the home equity. For example, if a buyer is purchasing a home for $250,000 and the seller’s assumable mortgage only has a balance of $110,000, the buyer will need to make a down payment of $140,000 to cover the difference. Or the buyer will need a separate mortgage to secure the additional funds.

A disadvantage is when the home’s purchase price exceeds the mortgage balance by a significant amount, requiring the buyer to obtain a new mortgage. Depending on the buyer’s credit profile and current rates, the interest rate may be considerably higher than the assumed loan.

Usually, a buyer will take out a second mortgage on the existing mortgage balance if the seller’s home equity is high. The buyer may have to take out the second loan with a different lender from the seller’s lender, which could pose a problem if both lenders do not cooperate with each other. Also, having two loans increases the risk of default, especially when one has a higher interest rate.

If the seller’s home equity is low, however, the assumable mortgage may be an attractive acquisition for the buyer. If the value of the home is $250,000 and the assumable mortgage balance is $210,000, the buyer need only put up $40,000. If the buyer has this amount in cash, they can pay the seller directly without having to secure another credit line.

Assumable Mortgage Transfer Approval

The final decision over whether an assumable mortgage can be transferred is not left to the buyer and seller. The lender of the original mortgage must approve the mortgage assumption before the deal can be signed off on by either party. The homebuyer must apply for the assumable loan and meet the lender’s requirements, such as having sufficient assets and being creditworthy.

If approved, the title of the property is transferred to the buyer who makes the required monthly repayments to the bank. If the transfer is not approved by the lender, the seller must find another buyer that is willing to assume his mortgage and has good credit.

A mortgage that has been assumed by a third party does not mean that the seller is relieved of the debt payment. The seller may be held liable for any defaults which, in turn, could affect their credit rating. To avoid this, the seller must release their liability in writing at the time of assumption, and the lender must approve the release request releasing the seller of all liabilities from the loan.

Assumable Mortgages FAQs

What does assumable mean?

Assumable refers to when one party takes over the obligation of another. In terms of an assumable mortgage, the buyer assumes the existing mortgage of the seller. When the mortgage is assumed, the seller is often no longer responsible for the debt.

What does not assumable mean?

Not assumable means that the buyer cannot assume the existing mortgage from the seller. Conventional loans are non-assumable. Some mortgages have non-assumable clauses, preventing buyers from assuming mortgages from the seller.

How does an assumable loan work?

To assume a loan, the buyer must qualify with the lender. If the price of the house exceeds the remaining mortgage, the buyer must remit a down payment that is the difference between the sale price and the mortgage. If the difference is substantial, the buyer may need to secure a second mortgage.

How do I know if my mortgage is assumable?

There are certain types of loans that are assumable. For example, USDA, VA, and FHA loans are assumable. Each agency has specific requirements that both parties must fulfill for the loan to be assumed by the buyer. The USDA requires that the house is in a USDA-approved area, the seller must not be delinquent on payments, and the buyer must meet certain income and credit limits. The buyer should first confirm with the seller and the seller’s lender if the loan is assumable.

Is an assumable mortgage good?

When current interest rates are higher than an existing mortgage’s rates, assuming a loan may be the favorable option. Also, there are not as many costs due at closing. On the other side, if the seller has a considerable amount of equity in the home, the buyer will either have to pay a large down payment or secure a second mortgage for the balance not covered by the existing mortgage.

The Bottom Line

An assumable mortgage may be attractive to buyers when current mortgage rates are high and because closing costs are considerably lower than those associated with traditional mortgages. However, if the owner has a lot of equity in the home, the buyer may need to pay a substantial down payment or secure a new loan for the difference in the sale price and the existing mortgage. Also, not all loans are assumable, and if so, the buyer must still qualify with the agency and lender. If the benefits outweigh the risks, an assumable mortgage might be the best option for homeownership.

What Is an Ascending Triangle?

An ascending triangle is a chart pattern used in technical analysis. It is created by price moves that allow for a horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle. Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns. The breakout can occur to the upside or downside.

Ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns since price will typically break out in the same direction as the trend that was in place just prior to the triangle forming.

An ascending triangle is tradable in that it provides a clear entry point, profit target, and stop-loss level. It may be contrasted with a descending triangle.

What Does the Ascending Triangle Tell You?

An ascending triangle is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, meaning that the pattern is significant if it occurs within an uptrend or downtrend. Once the breakout from the triangle occurs, traders tend to aggressively buy or sell the asset depending on which direction the price broke out.

Increasing volume helps to confirm the breakout, as it shows rising interest as the price moves out of the pattern.

A minimum of two swing highs and two swing lows are required to form the ascending triangle’s trendlines. But a greater number of trendline touches tends to produce more reliable trading results. Since the trendlines are converging on one another, if the price continues to move within a triangle for multiple swings, the price action becomes more coiled, likely leading to a stronger eventual breakout.

Volume tends to be stronger during trending periods than during consolidation periods. A triangle is a type of consolidation, and therefore volume tends to contract during an ascending triangle. As mentioned, traders look for volume to increase on a breakout, as this helps confirm the price is likely to keep heading in the breakout direction. If the price breaks out on low volume, that is a warning sign that the breakout lacks strength. This could mean the price will move back into the pattern. This is called a false breakout.

For trading purposes, an entry is typically taken when the price breaks out. Buy if the breakout occurs to the upside, or short/sell if a breakout occurs to the downside. A stop loss is placed just outside the opposite side of the pattern. For example, if a long trade is taken on an upside breakout, a stop loss is placed just below the lower trendline.

A profit target can be estimated based on the height of the triangle added or subtracted from the breakout price. The thickest part of the triangle is used. If the triangle is $5 high, add $5 to the upside breakout point to get the price target. If the price breaks lower, the profit target is the breakout point less $5.

Example of How to Interpret the Ascending Triangle

Here an ascending triangle forms during a downtrend, and the price continues lower following the breakout. Once the breakout occurred, the profit target was attained. The short entry or sell signal occurred when the price broke below the lower trendline. A stop loss could be placed just above the upper trendline.

Wide patterns like this present a higher risk/reward than patterns that get substantially narrower as time goes on. As a pattern narrows, the stop loss becomes smaller since the distance to the breakout point is smaller, yet the profit target is still based on the largest part of the pattern.

The Difference Between an Ascending Triangle and a Descending Triangle

These two types of triangles are both continuation patterns, except they have a different look. The descending triangle has a horizontal lower line, while the upper trendline is descending. This is the opposite of the ascending triangle, which has a rising lower trendline and a horizontal upper trendline.

Limitations of Trading the Ascending Triangle

The main problem with triangles, and chart patterns in general, is the potential for false breakouts. The price may move out of the pattern only to move back into it, or the price may even proceed to break out the other side. A pattern may need to be redrawn several times as the price edges past the trendlines but fails to generate any momentum in the breakout direction.

While ascending triangles provide a profit target, that target is just an estimate. The price may far exceed that target, or fail to reach it.

Psychology of the Ascending Triangle

Like other chart patterns, ascending triangles indicate the psychology of the market participants underlying the price action. In this case, buyers repeatedly drive the price higher until it reaches the horizontal line at the top of the ascending triangle. The horizontal line represents a level of resistance—the point where sellers step in to return the price to lower levels.

As the price drops downward from the horizontal resistance level, buyers begin to show their resolve, and the price fails to reach the recent low, with the trend turning upward once again at a higher swing low. In other words, the upward-sloping trendline that forms the lower boundary of the ascending triangle is acting as support—the level where buyers jump in and prevent the price from falling any lower.

In a well-defined ascending triangle pattern, the price bounces between the horizontal resistance line and the lower trendline. The lines of the triangle eventually converge, setting the stage for a showdown between upward and downward pressure that could determine which direction the price will move out of the pattern. As it approaches the vertex of the triangle, the price will either break out above the resistance level, suggesting additional gains ahead, or it will fall below the support level, increasing the likelihood that the price will decline.

The Bottom Line

An ascending triangle is a technical analysis chart pattern that occurs when the price of an asset fluctuates between a horizontal upper trendline and an upward-sloping lower trendline. Since the price has a tendency to break out in the same direction as the trend in place before the formation of the triangle, ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns. Traders often wait for the price to break above or below the pattern before entering a position. The ascending triangle pattern is particularly useful for traders because it suggests a clear entry point, profit target, and stop-loss level.