Global update:

July 18th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow pops more than 600 points in relief rally Friday but closes with weekly losses

Stocks rallied on Friday in response to a new round of bank earnings and promising economic data as fears of a 100 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve to subdue rising inflation subsided.

Dow…….31288 +658.1 +2.15%
Nasdaq.11452 +201.2 +1.79%
S&P 500..3863 +72.8 +1.92%

FTSE…….7159 +119.2 +1.69%
Dax……..12865 +345.1 +2.76%
CAC……..6036 +120.6 +2.04%

Nikkei….26789 +145.1 +0.54%
HSI……..20298 -453.5 -2.19%
Shanghai..3228 -53.7 -1.64%
ST Times..3099 +8.5 +0.28%

IDX…….6651.90 -38.18 -0.57%
LQ45…..938.95 -9.63 -1.01%

IDX Energy…1626.38 -48.12 -2.87%
IDX Bsc Mat.1215.14 -2.22 -0.18%
IDX Industrl..1179.96 -16.28 -1.36%
IDXNONCYC..702.42 -6.71 -0.95%
IDX Hlthcare.1525.90 -12.90 -0.84%
IDXCYCLIC…..865.72 +3.51 +0.41%
IDX Techno….7635.85 +30.51 +0.40%
IDX Transp…1929.15 -2.12 -0.11%
IDX Infrast……952.59 -2.43 -0.25%
IDX Finance 1407.80 +13.53 +0.97%
IDX Property…….658 -2.20 -0.34%

Indo10Yr….7.3804 +0.0480 +0.65%
ICBI……….330.6697 -0.8655 -0.26%
US10Yr…..2.9300 -0.0300 -1.01%
VIX…………24.23 -2.17 -8.22%‼️

USDIndx 108.0630 -0.4810 -0.44%‼️
Como Indx..277.64 +4.38 +1.60%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..140.30 +0.74 +0.53%

IndoCDS…162.01 +2.93 +1.84%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14996.50 -23.50 -0.16%‼️
Jisdor..14999.00 unch +0%‼️

Euro………1.0080 +0.0062 +0.62%

TLKM……..27.31 +0.65 +2.44%‼️
(4096)
EIDO………21.62 +0.14 +0.65%
EEM……….38.63 +0.20 +0.52%

Oil………….97.59 +1.43 +1.49%
Gold …….1703.60 -4.60 -0.27%‼️
Timah. .25364.00 – -0.82%
( Closed 13/7) – –
Nickel..19802.00 +590.00 +3.07%
(Closed 16/7)
Silver…….18.59 +0.23 +1.25%
Copper….323.40 -0.10 -0.03%

Nturl Gas…..7.115 +0.450 +6.75%‼️

Ammonia….3940.00 +66.67 +1.72%
China
(Domestic Price)(14/7)

Coal price…406.55 -9.80 -2.35%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…380.50 -30.25 -7.36%‼️
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…385.55 -7.55 -1.92%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…349.75 -17.25 -4.70%‼️
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept)…..3651 +107 +3.02%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………603.75 +2.75 +0.46%
SoybeanOil…58.23 +2.45 +4.39%
Wheat……….776.75 -18.25 -2.30%

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 16/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.

Seperti dugaan, US closing ijo tebel abis semingu terpuruk. Semoga kita ikut rebound, kemaren eropa udah ijo juga.

Oil Nikel Gas rebound, gold timah copper turun, coal turun lagi, walau masih diatas 400 USD/mt, udah mau mendekati winter di belahan bumi utara biasanya konsumsi coal meningkat dan harga saham coal juga rally lagi

Anyway, technically, MACD nya udah menyempit sehingga dalam waktu dekat kemungkinan akan cross jadi buy signal, harusnya rebound dulu, bukan ngejar gap di bawah dulu

Global Update:

July 15th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow falls 142 points as Wall Street weighs more aggressive Fed, disappointing bank earnings

Stocks slipped Thursday as big bank earnings kicked off with disappointing results and traders assessed the possibility of even tighter U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve as recessionary fears lingered.

Dow…….30630 -142.6 -0.46%
Nasdaq.11251 +3.6 +0.03%
S&P 500..3790 -11.4 -0.30%

FTSE…….7040 -116.6 -1.63%
Dax……..12520 -236.7 -1.86%
CAC……..5915 -84.8 -1.41%

Nikkei….26643 +164.6 +0.62%
HSI……..20751 -46.7 -0.22%
Shanghai..3282 -2.6 -0.08%
ST Times..3091 -38.1 -1.22%

IDX…….6690.09 +49.10 +0.74%
LQ45…..948.57 +12.14 +1.30%

IDX Energy…1674.50 +14.13 +0.85%
IDX Bsc Mat.1217.36 -3.77 -0.31%
IDX Industrl..1196.24 +26.72 +2.29%
IDXNONCYC..709.14 +4.49 +0.64%
IDX Hlthcare.1538.80 +8.69 +0.54%
IDXCYCLIC…..862.20 +0.47 +0.05%
IDX Techno….7605.34 +40.52 +0.54%
IDX Transp…1931.27 +1.18 +0.06%
IDX Infrast……955.01 +3.43 +0.36%
IDX Finance 1394.25 -11.63 -0.83%
IDX Property…….660 -2.10 -0.32%

Indo10Yr….7.3804 +0.0480 +0.65%
ICBI……….330.6697 -0.8655 -0.26%
US10Yr…..2.9600 +0.0560 +1.93%
VIX…………26.40 -0.42 -1.57%

USDIndx 108.5440 +0.5870 +0.54%‼️
Como Indx..273.26 -4.68 -1.68%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..139.56 -5.20 -3.59%‼️

IndoCDS…159.08 – -%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……15020.00 +28.50 +0.19%‼️
Jisdor..14999.00 +14.00 +0.09%‼️

Euro………1.0018 -0.0036 -0.36%

TLKM……..26.66 -0.21 -0.78%
(3999)
EIDO………21.48 +0.02 +0.09%
EEM……….38.43 -0.35 -0.90%

Oil………….96.16 +0.06 +0.06%
Gold …….1708.20 -25.40 -1.47%‼️
Timah. .25364.00 -210 -0.82%
( Closed 13/7)
Nickel..19212.00 -1814.00 -8.63%‼️
(Closed 14/7)
Silver…….18.36 -0.79 -4.12%
Copper…..323.50 -7.20 -2.18%

Nturl Gas…..6.665 +0.066 +1.00%

Ammonia….3873.33 +16.66 +0.43%
China
(Domestic Price)(13/7)

Coal price…416.35 -13.65 -3.17%‼️
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…410.75 -18.10 -4.22%‼️
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…392.60 -2.40 -0.61%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…367.00 -11.25 -2.97%‼️
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept)…..3544 -218 -5.79%‼️
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………601.00 +5.75 +0.97%
SoybeanOil…55.78 -0.93 -1.64%
Wheat……….795.00 -15.75 -1.94%

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 14/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.

Semua index regional merah, kecuali nikkei sama IHSG. Tapi berat buat berharap hari ini IHSG ijo lagi, hampir semua komoditas juga merah, yang ijo oil sama gas

Saham saham contrarian mulai muncul, BBCA BBRI GOTO dipake ganjel index, kalo gerakannya lanjut berarti udahan ABC correctionnya. WNS aja.

Global update:
July 14th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow slides 200 points, stocks dip as inflation hits highest level since 1981

Stocks slipped on Wednesday after June inflation data hit its highest level since 1981, adding to growing fears that the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive in its fight to tame rising prices.

Dow…….30773 -208.5 -0.67%
Nasdaq.11248 -17.2 -0.15%
S&P 500..3802 -17.02 -0.45%

FTSE…….7156 -53.5 -0.74%
Dax……..12756 -149.2 -1.16%
CAC……..6000 -43.96 -0.73%

Nikkei….26479 +142.1 +0.54%
HSI……..20798 -46.8 -0.22%
Shanghai..3284 +2.8 +0.09%
ST Times..3129 -17.1 -0.54%

IDX…….6640.99 -77.30 -1.15%
LQ45…..936.43 -13.06 -1.38%

IDX Energy…1660.38 -17.60 -1.05%
IDX Bsc Mat.1221.13 +0.72 +0.06%
IDX Industrl..1169.52 -3.47 -0.30%
IDXNONCYC..704.65 -2.92 -0.41%
IDX Hlthcare.1530.11 -2.89 -0.19%
IDXCYCLIC…..861.74 -11.44 -1.31%
IDX Techno….7565.83 -136.59 -1.77%
IDX Transp…1930.09 -19.57 -1.00%
IDX Infrast……951.58 -5.49 -0.57%
IDX Finance 1405.88 -10.16 -0.72%
IDX Property…….668 – -%

Indo10Yr….7.3324 -0.0241 -0.33%
ICBI……….331.5352 +0.3765 +0.11%
*US10Yr…..2.9040 -0.0540 -1.83%*
*VIX…………26.82 -0.47 -1.72%*

*USDIndx 107.9570 -0.2120 -0.20%‼️*
Como Indx..277.94 +1.93 +0.70%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..144.75 -0.51 -0.35%

*IndoCDS…159.08 +2.38 +1.52%‼️*
(5-yr INOCD5)

*IDR……14991.50 -3.50 -0.02%‼️*
*Jisdor..14985.00 -8.00 -0.05%‼️*

*Euro………1.0054 +0.0018 +0.18%*

TLKM……..26.87 +0.33 +1.24%
*(4026)*
EIDO………21.46 -0.29 -1.33%
EEM……….38.78 -0.09 -0.23%

*Oil………….96.10 +0.26 +0.27%*
*Gold …….1733.60 +8.80 +0.51%*
*Timah. .25574.00 -689 -2.62%*
*( Closed 12/7)*
*Nickel…21026.50 -271.50 -1.27%*
*(Closed 13/7)*
Silver…….19.15 +0.19 +1.00%
Copper…..330.70 +1.90 +0.58%

*Nturl Gas…..6.598 +0.3640 +5.84%‼️*

Ammonia….3856.67 unch +0%
*China*
(Domestic Price)(12/7)

Coal price…430.00 +4.00 +0.94%
(Jul/Newcastle)
*Coal price…428.85 -9.55 -2.18%*
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…395.00 -2.50 -0.63%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…378.25 -6.15 -1.60%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

*CPO(Sept)…..3762 -371 -8.98%‼️*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………595.25 +8.75 +1.49%
SoybeanOil…56.71 -1.21 -2.09%
Wheat………..810.75 -3.50 -0.43%

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 13/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_
.
Inflasi US tertinggi sejak 1981, pasti goyang… Ga lama lagi pasti naikin suku bunga deh. Kalo gini mah siap siap beneran diterusin kebawah ABC correction standar. Diluar energy mending exit kalo ada kesempatan, just to be safe

Kembali ke skenario ini? Mungkin saja, yang jelas kita harus siap kalo itu terjadi

Global Update:

July 13th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow drops more than 100 points, stocks fall ahead of key inflation report

U.S. stocks tumbled on Tuesday as worries over global economic growth dented investor appetite for risk assets and Wall Street braced for June inflation data.

Dow…….30981 -192.5 -0.62%
Nasdaq.11265 -107.9 -0.95%
S&P 500..3819 -35.6 -0.92%

FTSE…….7209 +13.3 +0.18%
Dax……..12906 +73.04 +0.57%
CAC……..6044 +47.9 +0.80%

Nikkei….26337 -475.6 -1.77%
HSI……..20845 -279.5 -1.32%
Shanghai..3281 -32.1 -0.97%
ST Times..3145 +14.5 +0.46%

IDX…….6718.29 -3.85 -0.06%
LQ45…..949.50 -2.70 -0.28%

IDX Energy…1677.98 +25.34 +1.53%
IDX Bsc Mat.1220.40 +13.05 +1.08%
IDX Industrl..1172.98 -2.18 -0.19%
IDXNONCYC..707.57 +0.67 +0.10%
IDX Hlthcare.1533.00 -9.00 -0.58%
IDXCYCLIC…..873.18 -2.89 -0.33%”
IDX Techno….7701.42 -10.37 -0.13%
IDX Transp…1949.66 +33.44 +1.74%
IDX Infrast……957.07 -1.95 -0.20%
IDX Finance 1416.04 +2.53 +0.18%
IDX Property…….670 +1.40 +0.20%

Indo10Yr….7.3565 -0.0127 -0.17%
ICBI……….331.1587 +0.0922 +0.03%
US10Yr…..2.9580 -0.0330 -1.10%
VIX…………27.29 +1.12 +4.28%

USDIndx 108.1690 +0.1480 +0.14%‼️
Como Indx..276.01 -11.77 -4.09%‼️
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..145.27 -3.22 -2.17%

IndoCDS…156.70 +11.72 +8.08%‼️
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14995.00 +20.00 +0.13%‼️
Jisdor..14993.00 +16.00 +0.12%‼️

Euro………1.0036 -0.0007 -0.07%

TLKM……..26.54 -0.12 -0.45%
(3979)
EIDO………21.75 +0.08 +0.37%
EEM……….38.87 -0.15 -0.38%

Oil………….95.84 -7.15 -6.94%‼️
Gold …….1724.80 -7.10 -0.41%
Timah. .26263.00 +899 +3.54%
( Closed 11/7)
Nickel…21334.00 -546.00 -2.50%
(Closed 12/7)
Silver…….18.96 -0.11 -0.58%
Copper….328.80 -13.05 -3.82%‼️

Nturl Gas…..6.234 -0.2510 -3.87%‼️

Ammonia .3856.67 -550.00 -12.48%‼️
China
(Domestic Price)(11/7)

Coal price…426.00 +7.00 +1.67%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…438.40 +11.60 +2.72%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…397.50 +7.50 +1.92%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…384.40 -2.25 -0.58%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept)…..4133 -30 -0.72%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………586.50 -42.50 -6.76%‼️
SoybeanOil…57.92 -3.39 -5.53%‼️
Wheat………..814.25 -42.25 -4.93%‼️

Wood pulp…6600.00 unch +0.%
(Closed 12/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.

Asia merah kecuali singapore, US merah, Europe ijo. Memang seringkali ketika US menyedihkan investor mindahin dana ke europe sih, tapi kalo issue nya global biasanya turun bareng.

Index sudah 2 hari merah tipis, keliatan belum mau dibawa turun, MACD nya makin menunjukkan mau rebound. Masih ada kemungkinan mau tutup gap, jadi keep cash ya, pegang barang cukup energy sama sebagian basic material aja, 30-50% max dari total equity

Dilihat dari regression mungkin langsung lanjut rebound, kita tunggu konfirmasi aja