The relative rotation graph (RRG) is a sophisticated tool in technical analysis to help investors decide which sectors, individual stocks, and other assets to pursue. Investors can use it to visually compare the performance and momentum of securities and asset classes against a benchmark. RRGs plot assets on a two-dimensional graph, with the x-axis representing the relative strength ratio and the y-axis for relative strength momentum. This format enables traders and investors to visually assess the relative strength and trendline of different securities, making it valuable for trading, rotation, and asset allocation strategies.

What is the Relative Rotation Graph?

RRGs are used to identify which stocks or sectors are underperforming and outperforming a market index or benchmark. The RRG has four quadrants: leading, weakening, lagging, and improving. Each quadrant is for different stages of an asset’s performance cycle, providing insights into the rotation of market leadership. This movement of securities through the quadrants helps to spotting trends and potential reversals and could provide investors with a strategic advantage in both short-term and long-term trading.

RRGs were created by Julius de Kempenaer in the early 1990s to visualize the relative performance of stocks and other securities against a benchmark and each other. De Kempenaer’s work has been valuable for helping investors make more informed decisions about trading, rotation, and asset allocation.

RRGs are an excellent visual way of analyzing market trends and relative performance. However, like all technical tools, they should be used with other techniques for a more comprehensive approach to trading and investing.

Understanding the Parts of the Relative Rotation Graph

The key elements of RRG and how they indicate relative strength and momentum are as follows:

• Axes: The x-axis is the relative strength ratio. This axis measures the performance of a security relative to a benchmark (hence, the strength is “relative”). A value more than 100 indicates outperformance, while a value less than 100 indicates underperformance. The y-axis represents the momentum of the relative strength. This axis shows the rate of change in the relative performance. It is essentially the momentum of the relative strength ratio,
• Top right quadrant: The top right quadrant in the RRG is the leading quadrant. Securities in this quadrant are outperforming the benchmark, and their momentum is positive. This indicates strong and improving performance.
• Bottom right quadrant: The bottom right quadrant is the weakening quadrant. Here, securities are still outperforming the benchmark, but their momentum is decreasing. Being here suggests that while they are strong, they might be losing their edge.
• Bottom left quadrant: This is the lagging quadrant. Securities in this area are underperforming the benchmark with negative momentum. It is a sign of weakness.
• Top left quadrant: This is the improving quadrant. This quadrant contains securities that are underperforming the benchmark but show increasing momentum. Being here suggests the potential for a turnaround.
• Data points and movement: Each security or asset is represented as a data point on the graph. The position of a data point within the graph indicates its relative strength and momentum. The movement of these data points is tracked over time, usually in a clockwise direction through the quadrants, which illustrates the evolution of their relative performance.

RRGs help investors spot trends and compare several securities at once. However, RRGs should be used with other forms of analysis since they provide a relative, not absolute, view.

How to Interpret Relative Rotation Graphs

Interpreting RRGs involve analyzing the patterns and movements of securities on this chart to identify market leaders, laggards, and potential rotation opportunities.

Movements and Patterns in RRGs

Securities in the RRG generally move clockwise through the four quadrants. This rotation reflects the natural ebb and flow of securities’ relative strength and momentum relative to a benchmark. In addition, the further a security is from the center, the stronger its relative strength or weakness is compared with the benchmark. A security far out in the leading or lagging quadrant has a strong trend, whether positive or negative.

The speed at which a security moves through the quadrants can indicate the stability of its trend. Rapid movements might suggest more volatile or less stable trends. Indeed, many RRGs show tails behind the data points, representing their historical path. Longer tails provide more context on historical performance and trend stability.

Identifying Market Leaders and Laggards

Securities in the leading quadrant are outperforming the benchmark with positive momentum and are considered market leaders. A security with a presence or movement deeper into this quadrant suggests a strong and stable outperformance. Meanwhile, securities in the lagging quadrant are underperforming and have negative momentum. These are the laggards of the market. A security that is continuously in or moving deeper into this quadrant has a strong downtrend relative to the benchmark.

Identifying Rotational Opportunities

A security moving from the improving quadrant into the leading quadrant can be an opportunity. This shift indicates a security is starting to outperform the benchmark with increasing momentum. Similarly, a security moving from the weakening to the lagging quadrant suggests that its previous outperformance is deteriorating, and it is now starting to underperform. This could signal a selling opportunity or a warning to avoid new investments.

Meanwhile, a move from lagging to improving suggests that a security is beginning to reverse its underperformance. This indicates an early stage of recovery, a potential buying opportunity for contrarian investors. Also, securities shifting from leading to weakening are still outperforming but are losing momentum. This could be a signal to take the profits or closely watch the situation to see if it continues losing steam.

Using Relative Rotation Graphs with Other Technical Tools

RRGs can be more effective when put together with other charts in the technical analyst’s toolkit. For example, once an RRG helps determine sectors or stocks that are showing relative strength, you can then review stocks in those sectors in greater depth. Candlestick patterns and volume analysis can give more details on the trading behavior for specific stocks, clueing you in about potential reversals in price trends. Indicators like moving averages, the relative strength index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands can also be used to assess the momentum and volatility of these stocks, helping you decide on entries and exits.

In addition, the RRG’s ability to depict sector rotation can provide great help for those using a top-down investment approach. When showing the sectors moving into the leading quadrant, you might allocate more to sectors poised for growth and reduce your exposure to those going into the lagging quadrant. This sector rotation strategy can be particularly useful during different phases of the economic cycle, as certain sectors tend to do better than others based on the economic conditions. This then points to how fundamental analysis can be used with RRG for a fuller picture of particular sectors and their prospects.

Benefits and Limitations of Relative Rotation Graphs

RRGs offer several advantages and limitations when used in trading, analysis, and portfolio management. Understanding these can help make better use of them for investing.

Benefits and Limitations of Relative Rotation Graphs

Benefits of Relative Rotation Graphs

Here are some benefits of RRGs:

• Visualizing market dynamics: RRGs provide a clear, visual representation of the relative strength and momentum of various securities or sectors, making it easier to understand complex market moves.
• Comparison tool: With RRGs, you can compare several securities simultaneously against a benchmark, which can be valuable for portfolio diversification and sector rotation strategies.
• Identifying trends: RRGs help pick out leaders, laggards, and emerging trends by observing the movement of securities through different quadrants.
• Timely decision-making: The dynamic nature of RRGs aids investors in making timely decisions by highlighting changes in momentum and strength before they become evident through price movements alone.
• Complementing other analyses: RRGs can be used alongside other technical, fundamental, and quantitative analysis tools, providing a more holistic view of the market.
• Sector and asset allocation: RRGs are particularly useful for sector analysis and distributing assets since they help identify industries or asset classes likely to outperform or underperform.

Limitations of Relative Rotation Graphs

Here are some limitations of RRGs:

• Relative, not absolute, rotation: RRGs illustrate the performance relative to a benchmark, not the absolute performance. A security in the leading quadrant could still be losing value in a bear market.
• Lagging indicator: RRGs inherently lag. They reflect past performance and trends, which may not always predict future movements.
• Requires a benchmark: The effectiveness of RRGs depends on the choice of an appropriate benchmark, which can vary based on the assets.
• Not a stand-alone tool: RRGs should not to be used in isolation. They do not deliver insights into company fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, or market sentiment.
• No indication of value: RRGs do not provide information about the value of securities. A stock might be moving into the leading quadrant but still be overpriced.

While RRGs are powerful for visualizing and analyzing market trends and relative performance, they are most effective when used as part of a broader, diversified approach to investment analysis and decision-making. Understanding their limitations is crucial to avoid overestimating their relevance.

Differences Between the Relative Rotation Graph and the Relative Strength Index

The RRG and the relative strength index (RSI) are both used in technical analysis, but serve different purposes and provide different kinds of information. RRGs are used for comparing several securities against a benchmark, while the RSI is for analyzing the price momentum of a single security. In addition, RRGs offer a two-dimensional view (strength and momentum), while the RSI is a one-dimensional oscillator (it constructs high and low bands and provides a trend indicator).

RRG is best used for relative performance and identifying trends. Meanwhile, the RSI is best for ascertaining momentum and potential price reversals. Another set of differences is that RRG is often used for asset allocation and sector rotation, while the RSI commonly helps identify potential entries and exits.

As such, RRG is more for visualizing and comparing the relative strength and trends of multiple securities, and the RSI sets out the momentum of individual securities and can help identify when there are overbought or oversold conditions.

Resources for Creating Relative Rotation Graphs

Making your RRGs requires specialized tools and resources, as these graphs involve complex calculations and dynamic visuals. Here are some great tools to use:

• RRG Research: Founded by Julius de Kempenaer, the creator of RRGs, the firm’s site provides tools and insights related to RRGs. The website offers educational resources, analysis, and access to RRGs.
• Bloomberg Professional Services Software: The Bloomberg Professional Services software, a leading financial data and analytics platform, offers RRG charts as part of its services. It provides functions for creating and customizing RRGs, making it a popular choice among professional investors and analysts.
• Refinitiv Eikon: This platform is another leading financial data and analytics provider that offers RRG charts as part of its services.
• StockCharts.com: This online platform offers various chart tools, including RRGs. It has a user-friendly interface for creating RRGs, suitable for professionals and individual investors.
• Optuma: Optuma is a professional-level technical analysis software that includes RRGs among its features. Known for its advanced analysis tools, Optuma caters to professional traders and analysts.

The tool you choose depends on your needs, skill level, and access to resources.

The Bottom Line

RRGs are vital for some types of technical analysis, offering a way to visualize the relative performance and momentum of different securities against a chosen benchmark. Its design, characterized by placing securities in four distinct quadrants—labeled leading, weakening, lagging, and improving—allows traders and investors to quickly grasp shifts in the market and identify assets gaining or losing strength against others. This makes RRGs particularly useful for strategies involving sector rotation, asset allocation, and portfolio diversification.

For traders, RRGs provide a strategic edge by enabling a clear understanding of various market segments’ relative trends and strengths. By integrating RRG analysis with other technical indicators and fundamental insights, traders can identify potential entry and exit points more effectively.

Donchian channels, a popular technical analysis tool, particularly among commodity traders, was developed by Richard Donchian, a pioneer in managed futures. These channels are primarily used to identify breakout points in price moves, which are key for traders looking to capture significant trends.

The Donchian channel is formed by plotting two boundary lines: the upper line marks the highest security price over a set number of periods, and the lower line marks the lowest price over the same periods. The default setting for Donchian channels is 20 periods, the typical number of trading days in a month.

The middle line, frequently included in Donchian channel calculations, represents the average of the upper and lower boundaries. This tool is particularly effective in trending markets, allowing traders to visualize price volatility and momentum. When the price breaks through the upper channel, it may indicate a buying opportunity, signaling a bullish trend. Conversely, a break below the lower channel could be a bearish signal, potentially a prompt to short. However, in range-bound markets, Donchian channels may produce frequent false signals. Thus, this tool is often used with other indicators to confirm trends and filter out noise.

Understanding the Formula and Calculation

Technical analysis in trading evaluates and predicts future price moves and trends for securities. One tool employed is the Donchian channel. While the mathematical formula behind it is straightforward, online trading platforms, charting software, and technical analysis apps can calculate and plot the Donchian channels for you. This convenience is helpful, but it’s also important to understand the nuts and bolts to know the tool’s benefits and limits.

Calculating the Donchian channels involves three basic components: the upper band, the lower band, and the middle band. The middle band is optional. The key aspect of this tool is the period (N), which determines the channel’s sensitivity. A lower value for N makes the channel more sensitive to price moves, while a higher value makes it less sensitive, capturing broader price trends. The selection of N depends on the trader’s strategy, with shorter periods used for shorter-term trading and longer periods for long-term trend following.

The Upper Band

The upper band is calculated by identifying the higher price of the asset over a set number of periods (N).

$Upper Band = max(High over the last N periods)$UpperBand=max(HighoverthelastNperiods)

The Lower Band

This is the lowest price of the asset over the same number of periods (N).

$Lower Band = min(low over the last N periods)$LowerBand=min(lowoverthelastNperiods)

The Middle Band

The middle band is the average of the upper and lower bands.

$Middle Band = (Upper Band + Lower Band)/2$MiddleBand=(UpperBand+LowerBand)/2

Practical Uses of Donchian Channels

Donchian channels are versatile in technical analysis, with applications that include the following:

• Identifying trends: A major use of Donchian channels is to identify the prevailing trend in the market. When the price of an asset consistently trades near the upper band, this indicates a strong uptrend, suggesting bullish sentiment. Conversely, trading near the lower band signals a downtrend, signaling a bearish sentiment.
• Breakout signals: They are particularly effective in spotting breakout opportunities. A breakout above the upper band signals a potential buying opportunity since it suggests that the asset might continue to rise. Meanwhile, a break below the lower band can signal a selling or short-selling opportunity since it could suggest the decline has further to go.
• Support and resistance levels: The upper and lower bands of the Donchian channel can suggest the support and resistance levels. Traders frequently watch them closely to make buying or selling decisions. For instance, a bounce off the lower band might be seen as a buying opportunity, while resistance at the upper band can be a cue to sell.
• Stop loss and exit points: Donchian channels can help set stop loss orders and determine exit points. For example, a common strategy is to place a stop loss order just below the lower band when buying, which helps limit potential losses if the market moves unfavorably.
• Measure of volatility: The width of the Donchian channel can serve as an indicator of market volatility. A wider channel indicates higher volatility, as the price is making larger swings over the set period. Conversely, a narrow channel indicates lower volatility.
• Filtering noise: In longer-term trading strategies, setting a longer term for the Donchian channels can help filter market noise and help you focus on the relevant price moves.

It should be noted that, like any trading tool in technical analysis, Donchian channels are not foolproof. Traders should know the risk of false breakouts and their limits in sideways markets.

Coordinating Donchian Channels With Other Tools

Donchian channels can be integrated with other technical analysis tools to bolster a trading strategy. Here are several ways to do so:

Moving averages and volume: Moving averages are used to smooth out price data for a period by creating a constantly updated average price. You can lay them over a Donchian channel to confirm or isolate trends. Also, you can use volume charts to confirm the solidity of a breakout signaled by the Donchian channel.

Relative strength index (RSI): This measures how rapid price shifts occur. Often, technical analysts use this data, scored between 0 and 100, to recognize when there’s too much buying or selling of a security. You can use RSI with a Donchian channel to initiate or back off trades. For example, a breakout beyond the upper band, with a high RSI, could suggest an overtraded security and signal the need for caution before buying. Alternatively, a breakout below the lower band and a low RSI could indicate the security is oversold, a signal of a potential buying opportunity.

Moving average convergence divergence (MACD): Using MACD with Donchian channels combines trend and momentum strategies. MACD measures momentum by comparing two moving averages and can be used to confirm signals from a Donchian channel. For example, should a price break the upper Donchian band, signaling a bullish trend, a bullish MACD crossover (when the line in the MACD crosses above the signal line) could indicate how strong the trend is. Likewise, should the price drop beneath the lower Donchian channel and have a bearish MACD crossover, this would signal that the move downward is a strong trend.

Factors to Consider When Using Donchian Channels

When using Donchian channels, several factors should be tailored to individual trading strategies:

• Selecting the period length: The default setting is 20 periods, but traders may adjust it to suit their trading needs and style. A shorter period makes the channel more sensitive to recent price moves, which is ideal for short-term trading. In contrast, a longer period smooths out the price data, which can be beneficial for long-term trend following.
• Market conditions: Donchian channels are most effective in trending markets. In range-bound or sideways markets, the channels may produce frequent false signals. It is essential to assess the overall market condition and use Donchian channels accordingly, possibly with other indicators that help identify market phases.
• Risk management: As with any trading strategy, risk management is crucial. Setting stop-loss orders is recommended to manage potential losses, especially in volatile markets. A stop loss at the lower and upper bands of the Donchian channel can be strategically placed for a long position and a short position, respectively.
• Combining with other indicators: To help confirm signals and reduce the risk of false breakouts, it is often beneficial to use Donchian channels with other technical indicators like the relative strength index (RSI), the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), or moving averages. This multiple-indicator approach can provide a more complete view of the market.
• Understanding false breakouts: A challenge with Donchian channels is that false breakouts occur when the price breaks through a band but then quickly reverses. Being ready for potential false signals is necessary for effective trading.
• Historical performance: Analyzing how an asset has historically responded to Donchian channel levels can help understand how it might perform in the future. However, past performance does not always indicate future results, so this should be one of several considerations.
• Adjustments for different assets: Different assets may behave differently, and what works for one asset or market may not work for another. Adjusting the settings of the Donchian channels to suit the characteristics of the specific assets is often necessary.
• Volatility consideration: The Donchian channel’s width can indicate the asset’s volatility. The channels will widen in highly volatile markets, and the price might hit the bands more frequently. This should be taken into account when interpreting the signals generated.
• Backtesting: Before applying Donchian channels strategies to live trading, backtesting on historical data may prove beneficial. This helps in understanding how the strategy would have performed in the past and in refining the approach based on real market data.
• Market context: Economic indicators, market sentiment, and fundamental factors should not be ignored. The overall market context needs to be considered. Tools like Donchian channels are most effective in a comprehensive trading strategy considering diverse market aspects.

Limitations and Risks of Donchian Channels

Donchian channels, like any technical analysis tool, have certain limitations and risks that traders should know:

Lagging indicator: The first limitation concerns lag. Donchian channels are based on past price data, making them lagging indicators. This means they react to price changes rather than predict them. In rapidly changing markets, this lag can lead to delayed entry and exit signals, potentially impacting the profitability of trades.

False breakouts: A significant risk associated with Donchian channels is the occurrence of false breakouts. The price may break through the upper or lower band, suggesting a trend change or continuation, but then quickly reverse direction. This can lead to traders entering or exiting positions based on misleading signals.

Sideways markets: Donchian channels are most effective in trending markets. In range-bound or sideways markets, when the price fluctuates within a narrow band, these channels can produce frequent whipsaws, frequent reversals leading to confusion and potential losses.

Overreliance on them: Moreover, relying solely on Donchian channels for trading decisions can be risky. It is generally more effective to use with other technical analysis tools and fundamental analysis to confirm signals and gain a more comprehensive market perspective. Indeed, while Donchian channels can help set stop-loss levels, determining the best place for these stops can be challenging, especially in volatile markets. The wrong stop-loss settings can lead to premature exits from potentially profitable trades or substantial losses.

The wrong period setting: The effectiveness of Donchian channels is also heavily dependent on the chosen period setting. Different settings can produce vastly different results, and no one-size-fits-all setting works for all markets or all types of assets. In addition, traders might experience psychological biases, such as confirmation bias, when they only use the channel signals that confirm their preexisting beliefs or positions. This can lead to misguided trading decisions.

Leaves a lot out: It should be noted that Donchian channels do not consider broader market conditions, news events, economic data releases, or other fundamental factors that can significantly impact asset prices. The tool ignores market context. Finally, traders might unintentionally introduce bias by selecting channel parameters that align with their desired outcomes rather than those that objectively reflect market conditions.

Understanding these limitations and risks is required for effectively using Donchian channels in trading. Traders are typically advised to use a holistic approach that combines several methods of analysis methods and sound risk management practices.

Example of Donchian Channel Trading Strategy

This example entails using the Donchian channel on the exchange-traded fund Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ). This example was conducted on a four-hour chart from Dec. 14, 2022, to Dec. 14, 2023.

The buy condition occurs when the candle’s high is above the Donchian channel’s upper band. This would close any short positions. Conversely, the sell condition rule entails when the candle’s low is lower than the lower band of the Donchian channel. This condition will close any long positions.

The strategy assumptions for Donchian channel trading include the following:

• Initial capital of $1,000,000
• Order size of 100% of equity
• No pyramiding of orders
• No leveraged trades
• Commissions and slippage are ignored
• Period length of 20

The results are as follows:

• Net profit: 9.64%
• Total closed trades: 15
• Percentage of profitable trades: 46.67%
• Profit factor generated: 1.35
• Maximum drawdown: 14.87%
• Buy and hold over same period: 55.12%

This example illustrates the potential effectiveness of the Donchian channels. However, it is critical to note that traders typically utilize more complex trading strategies and leverage, and they subject the indicator to more extensive backtesting and optimization before applying it to real trading.

Other Indicators Similar to Donchian Channels

Several technical analysis indicators share similarities with Donchian channels:

• Bollinger Bands: A volatility indicator consisting of a middle simple moving average and two standard deviation lines above and below it.
• Keltner channels: Like Bollinger Bands, but the channels are defined by an exponential moving average and average true range.
• Moving average envelopes: These are moving averages set above and below the price by a specified percentage.
• Price channels: Plots a security’s highest high and lowest low over a certain period.
• Average true range bands: Creates a volatility-based range around the price based on the average true range of an asset.

The Bottom Line

Donchian channels, a technical analysis tool developed by Richard Donchian, can effectively identify market trends and potential breakout points. The channels are constructed using two primary lines: the upper band, which is the highest price over a set number of periods (typically 20), and the lower band, which is the lowest price over the same number of periods. An optional middle band can also be included, representing the average of the upper and lower bands. The simplicity of this formula, focusing on price extremes, enables traders to visualize market volatility, momentum, and potential shifts in market trends.

Donchian channels are versatile and can be adapted to diverse trading strategies and time frames, from day trading to long-term investing. They are commonly used to spot breakout prospects, with a break above the upper channel indicating a potential buy signal and a break below the lower channel suggesting a sell or short sell signal. However, they are most effective in trending markets and can produce false signals in range-bound scenarios. Hence, they are usually used with other indicators, like RSI or MACD, for a more comprehensive analysis. While Donchian channels offer valuable insights, traders should be aware of their limitations and incorporate them into a broader, diversified trading strategy that aligns with their risk tolerance and market outlook.