Daily Analysis 20221216

December 16th, 2022

Good morning,

Dow closes out its worst day in three months, falls more than 700 points as recession fears grow

Stocks fell sharply Thursday after new data showed retail sales declined more than expected in November, raising fears that the Federal Reserve’s relentless interest rate hikes are tipping the economy into a recession.

*Dow…….33202 -764.1 -2.25%*
*Nasdaq.10811 -360.4 -3.23%‼️*
*S&P 500..3896 -99.6 -2.49%*

FTSE…….7426 -69.8 -0.93%
*Dax……..14460 -473.97 -3.28%‼️*
*CAC……..6522 -208.02 -3.09%‼️*

Nikkei….28052 -104.5 -0.37%
HSI……..19369 -304.9 -1.55%
Shanghai..3169 -7.9 -0.25%
ST Times..3274 -4.8 -0.15%

IDX…….6751.86 -49.89 -0.73%
LQ45……942.36 -8.80 -0.93%

IDX Energy..2140.54 -6.98 -0.32%
IDX BscMat 1248.38 -2.87 -0.23%
IDX Indstrl…1177.96 -2.44 -0.21%
IDXNONCYC..725.61 -1.92 -0.26%
IDX Hlthcare.1546.72 -10.59 -0.68%
IDXCYCLIC…..849.78 -8.86 -1.03%
IDX Techno..5225.49 +45.25 +0.87%
IDX Transp…1711.51 +0.61 +0.04%
IDX Infrast……844.98 -5.81 -0.68%
IDX Finance 1438.41 -11.62 -0.80%
IDX Banking 1160.95 -10.84 -0.92%
IDX Property….705 -5.60 -0.79%

*Indo10Yr.7.0177 unch +0%*
*ICBI….343.6001 +0.0308 +0.01%*
*US10Yr..3.4500 -0.0530 -1.51%*
*VIX……22.83 +1.69 +7.99%*

*USDIndx.104.6080 +0.6060 +0.58%*
Como Indx.274.72 -1.91 -0.69%
(Core Commodity CRB)
*BCOMIN…..164.09 -3.42 -2.04%*
.
*IndoCDS..105.25 – -%*
(5-yr INOCD5) *(07/11)*

*IDR……15619.00 +26.50 +0.17%*
*Jisdor..15630.00 +11.00 +0.07%*

*Euro……1.0625 -0.0058 -0.54%*

*TLKM…….22.41 -0.41 -2.07%*
*(3503)*
EIDO……….22.41 -0.41 -1.80%
*EEM……….37.72 -0.89 -2.31%*

Oil………….76.11 -1.17 -1.51%
*Gold …..1787.80 -30.90 -1.70%*
Timah…..24275 -369 -1.50%
*(Closed 14/12)*
Nickel…28296.50 -193.00 -0.68%
*(Closed 15/12)
*Silver………23.31 -0.83 -3.44%‼️*
*Copper….376.30 -11.50 -2.97%*

*Nturl Gas..6.876 +0.521 +8.20%‼️*

Ammonia..4790.00 -43.33 -0.90%
*China*
(Domestic Price)(14/12)

Coal price….401.90 -2.10 -0.52%
(Dec/Newcastle)
Coal price….376.55 -2.55 -0.67%
(Jan/Newcastle)
Coal price….359.80 -3.40 -0.94%
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price…240.00 -0.60 -0.25%
(Des/Rotterdam)
*Coal price…218.60 -6.45 -2.87%*
(Jan/ Rotterdam)
*Coal price…219.30 -5.95 -2.64%*
(Feb/Rotterdam)

Coal(ICI 4)…..89.80 – -%
Indonesial Coal Index (17/11)

CPO(Feb)…..3874 -76 -1.42%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………….653.50 +3.00 +0.46%
SoybeanOil.62.98 +0.14 +0.22%
Wheat………757.25 +8.00 +1.07%

Wood pulp…6510.00 unch +0%
(Closed 15/12)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

US & Europe kebakaran semua indexnya, gara2 nilai retail sales yang jelek dan kekhawatiran efek kenaikan suku bunga Fed. Bisa dalem lagi kita hari ini

Semua komoditas turun kecuali gas yang malah naik tinggi. Coal juga turun tapi masih stay diatas 400, semoga ga ikut koreksi saham2 emiten batubara

IHSG – stoch buy, MACD masih down, kemaren Foreign udah tipis buangnya, bandar flat, regbull div belum tembus MA 10, lagi di area strong support, semoga kuat terus lanjut mantul

Sektor2 yang kemaren leading mulai rontok, tapi yang menggembirakan Financials mulai jalan, bareng basic materials, infrastructure, transportation. Tapi basic materials komoditas turun kayanya ikut kebanting dulu

Kemungkinan cuma energy yang bisa bertahan leading

Stochastic Buy Signal: ADRO BBRI INDY INKP SMGR ELSA PTPP SRTG TKIM

MACD Buy Signal: BUKA JSMR

ADRO – hampir semua bagus, stoch buy, macd up, BD acc, FF last 2 day acc, MFI sw, abis ada hidbull jalan, ada vol breakout, ada freq spike di candle yang cenderung stagnant, kita check chart spikenya deh, EW wave 3, masih ok sih…

Ga terlalu significant spike nya…

Kalo dibawa turun, bisa BOW, stop loss level kalo breakdown previous low

BBRI – stoch buy, MACD baru buy tapi kurang meyakinkan, MFI down, BD FF dist, harusnya lagi wave 5, tapi mungkin belum beres wave 4, jaga2 aja, abis wave 3 dan kena bearish divergence dia belum koreksi ABC. WNS

INDY – menarik karena abis drop belum ikut naik kaya ADRO, harusnya jadwal wave 3 ini… FF alum terus pelan pelan, BD lagi buang tipis tipis terus,MFI down steady, nanti dulu deh, ini ada resiko dibawa turun dulu, ikut entry pas BD akum amannya, WNS

INKP – stoch buy tapi bolak balik, MACD belum, BD FF akum, MFI down, masih lingering di fibo 38, volprofile di bawah banyaknya, WNS deh, tunggu MACD

INKP – stoch buy tapi bolak balik, MACD belum, BD FF akum, MFI down, masih lingering di fibo 38, volprofile di bawah banyaknya, WNS deh, tunggu MACD

ELSA – menarik, energy biasanya naik akhir tahun, ini malah abis turun jauh, stoch buy, macd nya dikit lagi buy, BD FF dist tapi udah tinggal tipis tipis, MFI udah UP… ret pattern pas abis terus balik ke 23, harusnya lanjut rally ke 61, WNS, tunggu MACD

PTPP – skip…

SRTG – PBV dan PER nya layak invest, Stoch BUy, MACD kemaren udah buy, posisi retracement pattern abis 50 k bawah 23, ini tembus 23 belum sampe 38, bisa BOW ini… mumpung pullback

TKIM – menarik, stoch buy, macd masih down, MFI down, foreign inside, bolak balik acc dist tapi ga exit, BD masih dist, tunggu MACD deh

BUKA – technically menarik banget ini, fundamentally yang mengerikan… Skip ah

JSMR – sebenernya menarik, apalagi deket liburan tahun baru pendapatan pasti naik, tapi amannya tunggu bikin higher low dulu, saham abis terjun begini mah…