Daily Analysis 20221208

December 08th, 2022

Good morning,

S&P 500 notches fifth day of losses as traders consider recession odds, yields fall

The S&P 500 fell for a fifth day as traders weighed the possibility of a recession, and the likelihood of a longer-than-expected hiking cycle from the Federal Reserve.

Dow…….33598 +1.6 +0.00%
Nasdaq.10959 -56.3. -0.51%
S&P 500..3934 -7.3 -0.19%

FTSE…….7489 -32.2 -0.43%
Dax……..14261 -82.0. -0.57%
CAC……..6661 -27.2 -0.41%

Nikkei….27686 -199.5 -0.72%
*HSI……..18815 -626.4 -3.22%*
Shanghai..3200 -12.9 -0.40%
ST Times..3205 -26.9 -0.83%

IDX…….6818.75 -73.82 -1.07%
LQ45……945.58 -16.26 -1.69%

IDX Energy..2186.27 +11.97 +0.55%
IDX BscMat 1234.67 -11.91 -0.96%
IDX Indstrl…1197.49 -1.19. -0.10%
IDXNONCYC..731.71 -3.49 -0.47%
*IDX Hlthcare.1540.24 +41.76 +2.79%*
IDXCYCLIC…..862.56 -3.88 -0.45%
IDX Techno….5333.01 -85.91 -1.99%
IDX Transp…1727.21 -30.32 -1.73%
IDX Infrast……853.35 -9.35 -1.08%
IDX Finance 1441.39 -20.90 -1.43%
*IDX Banking 1164.93 -29.14 -2.44%*
IDX Property….703 -12 -1.68%

Indo10Yr….7.0644 +0.0331 +0.47%
ICBI……..342.6661 -0.4961 -0.14%
*US10Yr..3.4080 -0.1050 -2.99%*
*VIX……22.68 +0.51 +2.30%*

*USDIndx..105.2000 -0.3550 -0.34%*
Como Indx..265.89 -1.56 -0.58%
(Core Commodity CRB)
*BCOMIN…..172.13 +3.67 +2.18%*
.
*IndoCDS..105.25 – -%*
(5-yr INOCD5) *(07/11)*

*IDR……15636.50 +19.00 +0.12%‼️*
*Jisdor..15619.00 +43.00 +0.28%‼️*

*Euro……..1.0509 +0.0043 +0.41%*

TLKM……..23.44 +0.07 +0.30%
*(3661)*
EIDO……….22.67 -0.20 -0.87%
EEM………..38.81 -0.23 -0.59%

*Oil………….72.01 -2.24 -3.02%‼️*
*Gold ……1798.00 +15.60 +0.88%*
*Timah…..24814 +368. +1.81%*
*(Closed 06/12)*
*Nickel…30816.00 +1799.00 +6.20%‼️*
*(Closed 06/12)*
*Silver………22.92 +0.59 +2.63%*
Copper….386.05 +4.25 +1.11%

*Nturl Gas…..5.816 +0.444 +8.27%‼️*

*Ammonia..4890.00 +16.67 +0.34%*
*China*
(Domestic Price)(06/12)

Coal price….405.00 -3.80 -0.93%
(Dec/Newcastle)
*Coal price…..390.40 -11.95 -2.97%*
(Jan/Newcastle)
*Coal price…..381.10 -11.15 -2.84%*
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price….263.30 -3.35 -1.26%
(Des/Rotterdam)
Coal price….261.75 -5.25 -1.97%
(Jan/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….262.00 -4.7 -1.76%
(Feb/Rotterdam)

Coal(ICI 4)…..89.80 – -%
Indonesial Coal Index (17/11)

*CPO(Feb)…..3969 -117 -2.86%*
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………….642.25 +5.00 +0.78%
SoybeanOil…60.29 -0.71 -1.16%
*Wheat……..749.50 +20.50 +2.81%*

Wood pulp…6550.00 -10 -0,15%
(Closed 07/12)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: *_AT_*
_Desy Erawati/ *DE*_

*Source*: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
_Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas_

DJI berhenti minus, semoga IHSG rebound. Kemaren semua minus, Hangseng paling parah

Metal2 naik semua, nikel paling tinggi. Oil lanjut turun, coal turun, gas rebound tinggi, CPO minus lagi. Gantian terus commodity energy, selalu ada yang naik pas ada yang turun

IHSG – Memang terakhir drop gap nya belum firm ketutup. tapi karena langsung mantul diperkirakan udah dianggap done, sekarang jadi harus berpikir untuk amannya start belanja once gap itu ketutup. Kalo dibikin tail panjang kebawah terus closing di atas cakep ini…

Kalo liat stochastic dan MACD nya, dan foreign net sell yang tambah besar tiap hari, sepertinya ga bisa instant ngebalik terus rally window dressing. Minggu depan mungkin baru ngebalik bisa pada akum dan net buy

Masih belum berubah, masih Energy Healthcare Property sama Consumer Non-Cyclicals. Kita perlu sektor Financials jalan kalo mau santa claus rally

Stoch Buy Signal: ARTO EMTK JSMR

ARTO – stoch buy, MACD masih down, MFI down, FF dist, BD dist, masih belum mantul sih… Elliot wave reverse nya seems done, memang masih mungkin berhentinya di 2000-an, tapi ga lah, harga udah mulai konsolidasi di level ini, harusnya tinggal nunggu mantul. Tapi bagusnya stay away dari saham model gini, walau LQ45 tapi gorengan banget

EMTK – mirip ARTO, stoch buy macd masih down, BD FF dist walau sempet akum sehari 2 hari lalu, itungan ABC correction udah cukup, LR di lower channel. Tapi belum saatnya entry

JSMR – belum sih, stoch nya karena mentok bawah aja makanya bolak balik signalnya, memang ga efektif lagi once mentok. MACD masih down, bd ff masih massive dist, stay away

MACD ga ada buy signal