Daily Analysis 20221129

 

November 29th, 2022

Good morning,

The Dow fell sharply Monday, as investor sentiment was hurt by Federal Reserve officials reiterating a stance for rates to remain higher for longer at a time when the impact of civil unrest in China stoked fears about slowing global growth.

Dow…….33850 -497.6 -1.45%
Nasdaq.11050 -176.9 -1.58%
S&P 500..3964 -62.2 -1.54%

FTSE…….7474 -12.7 -0.17%
Dax……..14383 -158.02 -1.09%
CAC……..6665 -47.3 -0.70%

Nikkei….28163 -120.2 -0.43%
HSI……..17298 -275.6 -1.57%
Shanghai..3079 -23.1 -0.75%
ST Times..3240 -4.5 -0.14%

IDX…….7017.36 -35.79 -0.51%
LQ45……996.76 -4.98 -0.50%

IDX Energy..2037.57 -7.74 -0.38%
IDX Bsc Mat.1273.35 -12.28 -0.95%
IDX Industrl..1234.62 +0.14 +0.13%
IDXNONCYC..733.34 +0.12 +0.60%
IDX Hlthcare.1482.32 -3.70 +0.88%
IDXCYCLIC…..890.41 -0.09 -0.01%
IDX Techno.6179.14 -245.76 -3.83%‼️
IDX Transp…1780.24 -18.10 -1.01%
IDX Infrast……895.71 -11.73 -1.29%
IDX Finance 1485.42 -9.33 -0.62%,
IDX Banking 1192.49 -1.73 -0.15%
IDX Property….709 – -%

Indo10Yr….7.1723 -0.0112 -0.16%👍
ICBI……..340.7880 +0.1712 +0.05%👍
US10Yr..3.7030 +0.0120 +0.33%
VIX……22.21 +1.71 +8.34%‼️

USDIndx..106.6570 +0.6980 +0.66%‼️
Como Indx..272.92 -0.33 -0.12%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN……155.64 +0.23 +0.15%
.
IndoCDS..105.25 – -%
(5-yr INOCD5) (07/11)

IDR……15722.00 +49.50 +0.32%‼️
Jisdor..15729.00 +61.00 +0.39%‼️

Euro……..1.0343 -0.0052 -0.50%

TLKM……..25.04 -0.51 -.2.00%
(3938)
EIDO………23.28 +0.15 +0.65%
EEM……….37.60 -0.17 -0.45%

Oil………….77.24 +0.96 +1.26%
Gold ……1753.60 -13.50 -0.76%
Timah…..22231 – -%
(Closed 25/11)
Nickel…25594.00 +115.00 +0.45%
(Closed 28/11)
Silver………21.13 -0.48 -2.24%
Copper…..361.55 -1.50 -0.41%

Nturl Gas…..7.329 +0.527 +7.74%‼️

Ammonia..4590.00 – -%
China
(Domestic Price)(24/11)

Coal price….379.00 +18.20 +5.04%‼️
(Dec/Newcastle)
Coal price….368.50 +14.45 +4.08%‼️
(Jan/Newcastle)
Coal price….361.65 +14.60 +4.21%‼️
(Feb/Newcastle)
Coal price….249.00 +7.55 +3.13%‼️
(Des/Rotterdam)
Coal price….249.90 +9.40 +3.91%‼️
(Jan/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….248.40 +8.55 +3.56%‼️
(Feb/Rotterdam)

Coal(ICI 4)…..89.80 – -%
Indonesial Coal Index (17/11)

CPO(Feb)……4134 closed +0%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………….671.25 +0.00 +0.00%
SoybeanOil…73.12 +1.41 +1.97%
Wheat………780.75 -16.25 -2.04%

Wood pulp…6590.00 unch +0%
(Closed 28/11)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia

Semua merah kemaren, semoga rebound hari ini… Tapi kemungkinan masih lebih besar tetep merah tudei

Komoditi energy mantul, Oil rebound (tapi belum rekomen buy saham2 minyak just yet), Natural Gas loncat lagi, Coal lanjut naik tinggi, saham2 coal yang pasti recommended. CPO masih galau, metal metal juga masih kacaw

IHSG – stoch balik sell, macd juga, masih dalam rangka sideways sih, semoga bukan lanjut ke bawah. Harusnya tetep santa claus rally desember ini… Senin udah FNB lagi, tapi bandar lokal dist, MFI flat, masih wave 3 tapi sidewaysnya rada lama ini… semoga ada sentimen positif terus breakout triangle ke atas. Sementara masih selective buying, terutama di energy, specifically coal stocks…

Financials nya loyo, makanya indexnya juga lemes… Energy Property leading, keliatan gerak juga property sama industrials, consumer non-cyclicals sama healthcare, tapi jangan terlalu aggressive di yang selain 2 leading sectors

Stochastic Buy Signal: INTP SMGR BTPS LPPF

MACD Buy Signal: GGRM

INTP – Stoch Buy MACD rev up, MFI last day up, bd dist last day akum tipis, FF dist ada freq spike. Kemaren kejedot fibo 23 terus down,sekarang mau retest dan dari volume profile memang banyak transaksi di sekitar 10.100. Menarik sih, tapi sektornya juga belum jalan, kita liat lagi pas MACD cross atau ada breakout. Itu ada gap juga di bawah, jadi tambah was was… wait and see deh…

SMGR – kemaren abis double bottom targetnya udah tercapai terus koreksi lagi, keliatan banget pas harga hike akumulasi juga terjadi, abis itu mulai dilepas dan turun pelan2… Ini belum mulai akum lagi, ada stoch buy signal, pas di area fibo 23 siap mantul harusnya, tapi nggak deh, wns dulu

BTPS – stoch buy macd belum, FF dist, BD last day akum, ada freq spike, MFI last day up pas bd masuk itu berarti. Retracement pattern udah ke fibo 50 terus retrace lagi ke 23, harusnya abis ini lanjut ke 61, tapi liat FF sama BD masih gitu belum sih, kita tunggu INFOBANK15 gerak dan MACD buy deh

LPPF – dasar gorengan, pake transaksi kecil aja dia bisa angkat harga… akum dikit dist dikit bolak balik sambil ngangkat. Kapan diguyurnya nanti ini? Anyway, technically stoch buy, macd masih down, retracement pattern udah hampir sampe ke fibo 61, nanti kita tarik elliot wave nya, dari volume profile kalo firm lanjut next stop di 5750. Meanwhile tunggu macd and vol breakout and FF entry deh

GGRM – technically hampir OK semua, stoch up macd buy, MFI lagi sw, BD FF akum, ada gap 2 diatas, consumer non-cyclicals lagi mau jalan, yang ga masalah beli pabrik rokok mangga buy… Kalo kenceng target pertama di 24.925