Daily Analysis 20220905

Global Update:

September 05th, 2022

Good morning,

Major stock averages slide for third week, Nasdaq posts six-day losing streak

U.S. equities fell on Friday to cap their third straight weekly decline, after a solid August jobs report failed to ease fears that the Federal Reserve would keep aggressively hiking interest rates to fight inflation.

Dow…….31318 -337.98 -1.07%
Nasdaq.11631 -154.3 -1.31%
S&P 500..3924 -42.6 -1.07%

FTSE…….7281 +132.7 +1.86%
Dax……..13050 +420.04 +3.33%
CAC……..6168 +133.2 +2.21%

Nikkei….27651 -10.6 -0.04%
HSI……..19452 -145.2 -0.74%
Shanghai..3187 +1.5 +0.05%
ST Times..3206 -18.4 -0.57%

IDX…….7177.18 +24.08 +0.34%
LQ45…1019.79 +2.86 +0.28%

IDX Energy…1939.02 +23.15 +1.21%
IDX Bsc Mat.1290.86 +11.47 +0.90%
IDX Industrl..1335.91 +10.83 +0.82%
IDXNONCYC..709.76 -1.41 -0.20%
IDX Hlthcare.1432.45 +9.90 +0.70%
IDXCYCLIC…..882.66 +0.87 +0.10%
IDX Techno..7585.34 -102.53 -1.33%
IDX Transp…1962.78 +2.34 +0.12%
IDX Infrast…..1044.42 -0.16 -0.02%
IDX Finance 1519.59 +7.26 +0.48%
IDX Banking..1159.98 +7.03 +0.61%
IDX Property…704 +4.00 +0.56%

Indo10Yr….7.1647 +0.0107 +0.15%
ICBI……..336.1665 -0.1329 -0.04%
US10Yr……3.1930 -0.0720 -2.21%
VIX……….25.47 -0.09 -0.35%

USDIndx 109.5340 -0.1570 -0.14%‼
Como Indx..284.62 -5.79 -1.99%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..146.38 -0.82 -0.56%
.
IndoCDS…120.57 +4.15 +3.56%‼
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……14895.00 +13.00 +0.09%
Jisdor..14900.00 +16.00 +0.11%

Euro………0.9954 +0.0006 +0.08%

TLKM……..30.30 +0.18 +0.60%
(4515)
EIDO………24.04 +0.07 +0.29%
EEM………39.12 -0.31 -0.79%

Oil…………..86.87 +0.30 +0.35%
Gold ……..1722.60 +16.10 +0.94%
Timah. .21060.00 +95.00 +0.45%
( Closed 02/9)
Nickel….20474.00 +185.50 +0.91%
(Closed 02/9)
Silver…….17.88 +0.24 +1.36%
Copper….341.35 -0.10 -0.03%

Nturl Gas…..8.902 -0.265 -2.89%

Ammonia….3866.67 +66.67 +1.75%
China
(Domestic Price)(01/9)

Coal price….435.00 +7.65 +1.79%
(Sept/Newcastle)
Coal price….440.90 +7.20 +1.66%
(Okt/Newcastle)
Coal price….430.55 +7.85 +1.86%
(Nov/Newcastle)
Coal price….376.00 +5.75 +1.55%
(Sept/Rotterdam)
Coal price….368.35 +5.35 +1.47%
(Okt/ Rotterdam)
Coal price….361.60 +5.85 +1.64%
(Nov/Rotterdam)

CPO(Nov)……3901 -89 -2.23%‼
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)

Corn………..665.75 +7.75 +1.18%
SoybeanOil…66.25 +2.66 +4.18%‼
Wheat……..811.00 +16.75 +2.11%

Wood pulp…6730.00 unch +0%
(Closed 04/9)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, Bursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas

US closing jum’at merah, europe ijo, asia merah kecuali shanghai dan Indonesia

Ini, plus issue kenaikan BBM, makin menguatkan itungan technical untuk turun wave 2

Oil dan metal2 mostly naik, gas cpo turun, coal lanjut naik. Mendekati winter dan ada crisis energy dunia, bisa jadi long run ini coal. Technically harusnya ada koreksi dulu sebelum nanti hike lagi di winter sih, tapi kita pantau aja perkembangannya

Masih skenario ini yang paling make sense… tutup gap 6740 dulu

IHSG – Walau stoch jadi buy, MFI naik, bandar akum, foreign entry terus, candle diatas EMA 20 dan 50, tapi kata elliot wave theory harusnya turun wave 2, kenaikan BBM bisa jadi issue yang nganter kesana. Market discounts everything

Financials, Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclicals… Industrials sama Infrastructure mungkin next, after the storm

Financials – stoch up, macd almost buy, bandar akum, ff entry, MFI up, over ichimoku cloud walau lagging line belum ke atas candle, wave 3 confirm kalo breakout 1541, PSAR up, LR masih down. So far keliatannya mau jalan, tapi once IHSG memang dibanting financials pasti bareng dibanting, malah mungkin paling dulu. WNS aja lah

BBNI MACD Buy signal plus FNB dan bandar akum, akhir bulan kemaren ada freq spike juga

BBNI – stoch up, MACD buy, Bandar akum, FF akum, MFI SW, diatas cloud, alligator buy, supertrend up, kemaren koreksi pas mantul di fibo 38, sah udah jadi sekarang wave 3 dan high kemaren diatas high wave 1, candle above EMA 9 21 50, psar up, LR down… Mostly encourage untuk lanjut naik. Monggo yang berani Buy on Breakout 8725, kalo saya minggir dulu, masih yakin index mau wave 2 dulu soalnya

Menarik sih BBNI dari FQ

Energy – All good except for target wave 5 sudah bisa dianggap tercapai, dan sudah nongol regular bearish divergence dari 2 titik high, dan LR yang mentok upper channel

Malah ada sell signal di HRUM sama MEDC…

ADRO – udah breakout titik high wave 5 terakhir, firm jalan wave 3, target di 4180. Price over 4000 siap siap buang muatan. Masih berpikiran bahwa sebelum rally winter akan turun dulu wave 4

Healthcare – Mostly good, minus stoch 833 yang bilang ada minor correction dulu, stoch up MACD up, MFI up, LR suggest mantul, memang masih dibawah cloud ichimoku dan EMA 50, belum akan langsung lari biasanya, tapi ya lagging indicator kan emang gitu

Belum ada signal buy baru…

MIKA HEAL arahnya jadi ga asik… HEAL memang udah jual, nunggu re-entry, MIKA dipantau dulu

MIKA – masih ditahan terus belum boleh jalan… bolak balik signalnya kemaren, pas vol breakout bener nak terus ditahan lagi. Sebenernya masih ok, tapi tertib kalo ada sell signal consider sell, pasti sell kalo ada candle volume buangan

Consumer Cyclicals – Nah, baru mulai bener mungkin ada perlawanan, hari ini trial breakke atas fibo 23 lagi, FF akum, bandar mulai akum, stoch down tapi kayaau reversal, MACD belum, LR PSArmasih down, tapi ada kemungkinan mantul di midline. Belum saatnya entry, tapi kita liat apakah sudah ada yang mendahului sektornya

MAPI

MAPI – Stoch Buy, macd sw alligator buy supertrend up, ff akum bandar start akum, MFI down, lagi wave 3, Lr mentok… Udah ada vol breakout kemaren2, straight 4 hari ijo. Kalo index aman sih berani ngejar ini, tapi buat sekarang WNS dulu

ICBP SMRA

ICBP – harusnya lagi wave 3, setelah dibanting karena lapkeu rugi kemaren… Stoch buy macd buy bandar akumff akum, kemaren harga drop after LK release cuma bandar distribusi,mark down, foreign tetep belanja. BOW, kecuali yang masih hold INDF, udah hold aja

SMRA – ini harusnya ok, retracement pattern mau jalan ke fibo 61. Udah stoch buy, macd belum, kita tunggu macdatau vol breakout deh, harusnya nanti bareng sektornya jalan, kalo emang mau jalan, kalo ga pasti akan jadi sideways

BBNI, udah dibahas ini di atas ya