Daily Analysis 20220728

Global Update:
July 28th, 2022

Good morning,

U.S. stocks rallied in late trading Wednesday, with Nasdaq leading the way after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point and comments by Chairman Jerome Powell reassured investors

Powell said in a news conference following the Fed announcement that he did not believe the U.S. economy is currently in a recession but it is softening.

He also said the lack of clear visibility into the future of the economy means the Fed can provide reliable guidance about where its policy is headed only on a “meeting-by-meeting” basis.

Dow…….32198 +436.1 +1.37%
Nasdaq.12032 +469.9 +4.06%
S&P 500..4024 +102.6 +2.62%

FTSE…….7348 +41.95 +0.57%
Dax……..13166 +69.5 +0.53%
CAC……..6258 +46.5 +0.75%

Nikkei….27716 +60.5 +0.22%
HSI……..20670 -235.8 -1.13%
Shanghai..3276 -1.7 -0.05%
ST Times..3205 +13.02 +0.41%

IDX…….6898.22 +26.68 +0.39%
LQ45…..974.46 +5.98 +0.62%

IDX Energy…1804.59 +42.49 +2.41%
IDX Bsc Mat.1267.91 -2.96 -0.23%
IDX Industrl..1237.90 +16.74 +1.37%
IDXNONCYC..717.08 -3.99 -0.55%
IDX Hlthcare.1514.58 +5.41 +0.36%
IDXCYCLIC…..880.86 -0.26 -0.03%
IDX Techno..7699.33 +67.11 +0.88%
IDX Transp…1952.21 -5.57 -0.28%
IDX Infrast……989.69 +0.10 +0.01%
IDX Finance 1472.89 -5.47 -0.37%
IDX Banking..1104.50 +3.21 +0.29%
IDX Property…….676 -1.20 -0.18%

Indo10Yr….7.4305 -0.0344 -0.46%
ICBI……….329.7096 +0.6333 +0.19%
US10Yr…..2.7340 -0.0530 -1.90%
VIX…………23.24 -1.45 -5.87%

USDIndx 106.4520 -0.7370 -0.69%‼️
Como Indx..289.08 +2.58 +0.90%
(Core Commodity CRB)
BCOMIN…..149.54 +1.12 +0.75%

IndoCDS…135.67 +0.62 +0.46%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR……15010.00 unch +0%‼️
Jisdor..15020.00 +36.00 +0.05%‼️

Euro………1.0190 +0.0061 +0.60%

TLKM……..28.38 +0.25 +0.89%
(4263)
EIDO………22.82 +0.33 +1.47%
EEM………39.98 +0.73 +1.86%

Oil…………98.27 +2.75 +2.88%
Gold ……1752.40 +18.10 +1.04%
Timah. .24470.00 -477.00 -1.91%
( Closed 26/7)
Nickel..21700.00 -402.50 -1.82%
(Closed 27/7)
Silver…….19.04 +0.48 +2.59%
Copper….347.75 +7.80 +2.29%

Nturl Gas…..8.640 -0.145 -1.65%

Ammonia….3890.00 +200 +5.42%‼️
China
(Domestic Price)(25/7)

Coal price….411.50 -2.50 -0.60%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price…424.10 -15.90 -3.61%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price…387.00 -2.50 -0.64%
(Jul/Rotterdam)
Coal price…380.00 -8.00 -2.06%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Okt)…..3824 +36 +0.95%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn…………603.00 +2.25 +0.37%
SoybeanOil…50.19 +1.24 +2.14%
Wheat………790.25 -13.50 -1.68%

Wood pulp…6660.00 +10 +0.15%
(Closed 27/7)

©️Phintraco Sekuritas
Broker Code: AT
Desy Erawati/ DE

Source: Bloomberg, Investing, IBPA, CNBC, yBursa Malaysia
Copyright: Phintraco Sekuritas
.
US naik tinggi terutama saham teknologi. Hampir semua index regional juga ijo kecuali hangseng sama shanghai,udah ada bocoran kayanya.
Komodoti hampir semua naik kecuali gas timah dan nikel, coal turun dikit, masih diatas 410 USD/MT

IHSG – MACD masih firm, sudah lewat efek hidden bearish divergence, US news bagus, semoga lanjut rally sampe januari, kalo koreksi minor minor aja

Yang masih di area leading walau flat cuma energy sama industrials

Yang lain butuh waktu, belum firm, malah keliatan mau lagging dulu

Tapi property dan infrastructure beberapa sahamnya mulai gerak

MEDC yang emerging, yang coal semoga ada continuation, kita liat di buy signal indicator type oscillator aja

MEDC – masih dalam rangka wave 3 keliatannya, udah break midline LR, MACD buy, stoch up, 833 baru nongol buy lagi

OK buat buy, amannya dibawah 587

Technically energy banyak banget yang sudah overbought, tapi khususnya di coal masih banyak ketemu bandar akumulasi dan FNB. Short term mungkin koreksi/sideways tapi long run nya sampe selesai winter sih harusnya OK

Yang mau entry di coal tunggu pullback, kemungkinan besar ga akan dibawa terbang tanpa sempet pullback dulu

Sample coal: ADRO – MACD masih ok, Stochastic jelas overbought, pattern harusnya lanjut wave C, liat LR kayanya akan dibawa tutup gap dulu baru koreksi. Saya rencana jual pas di level tutup gap dan siap2 re-entry beres wave C, yang kayanya akan flat style

ELSA – retracement pattern harusnya bawa ke atas, ke fibo 61, tapi mau bagi deviden, keliatannya akan dibanting dulu. Stochasticnya overbought, kita tunggu turun dulu semoa bikin hidden bullish divergence

Pada mulai lemes UNTR ASII… BMTR yang menarik

KBLI MACD buy signal

KBLI – otw fibo 61, LR mantul dari lower band test midline, udah confirmed volume breakout kemaren, supertrend up, alligator buy. Entry KBLI ah pagi ini, BOW setengah candle kemaren

KBLI PBV nya 0.56, relatively murah… Rasio2 keuangan ok. Masuk screening saham invest

BMTR – sabar, MACD masih jelek, stoch masih jelek, walau harusnya otw wave 5 tapi belum pada akum bandar dan foreign, belum ada volume confirmation juga

TOWR

TOWR – ketemu upper channel, ada bearish divergence, belum bikinhigher low ke aras fibo 23, sepertinya akan koreksi dulu, kita ikut di wave C nya nanti

ASRI ISAT KBLI

ISAT – dibawa sideways, bolak balik MACD nya buy sell buy, kita minggir dulu tunggu konfirmasi triangle breakout dan volume deh